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30/11/2001 edition

Randwick Inner Horseracing Track
How to Back Winners

It is possible to back good winners consistently at this track despite the standard of racing currently being served up on a Saturday.

Firstly it is important to understand that it has a Strath Ayr surface, similar to Moonee Valley, but with its own peculiarities. That means it is very much a specialists' track. Just like with Moonee Valley you also forgive a horse a bad run at the Randwick Inner track when doing your form for other tracks. You also do not use last start winning Randwick Inner track form as your main criteria when assessing the chances of a horse at another track.

Here is how to win at the Randwick Inner track:

1. Do not take short odds about any horse. It is too risky on that track.
2. Take good odds about horses with proven form on the track. Believe me, you can often get good odds about horses in their right class and with good form at the track.

Let's look at Thunderwin last Saturday who ran in a three year old restricted race at the track over 1400 metres. Consider these points:

1. Ten days earlier she put in a good first up run in a restricted filles race at Warwick Farm over 1100 metres. After settling well back in the field she ran on nicely and finished second.

2. She had the same jockey - apprentice Robbie Brewer, who would ride her at Randwick on 51.5kg.

3. Thunderwin was looking for more distance.

4. She was only up in class a few kilos at most last Saturday from her first up run. You would expect a few kilos improvement in her, anyway, second up.

5. Could Thunderwin handle the class rise and the track? An emphatic "Yes" to both.
a) In May this year she finished third in a Saturday class 2YO Open over 1400 metres after being checked on the home turn.
b) She followed that run two weeks later by finishing second - by a long head - in another Saturday class 2YO Open, this time over 1550 metres.

These were not restricted races. Yet Thunderwin was racing in a restricted race last Saturday. Here is the clincher - both of the above runs were at the Randwick Inner track on a Dead rated surface, the same as for last Saturday.

In the seven horse field last Saturday you would have expected the filly to be around $3.50 to $4.00. She started at the unbelievable odds of $12.00 and won very nicely indeed. The markets got it completely wrong again. It was also another big value success story for our ratings.

Next pages
First starters - money does not talk
Future winners at big odds
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
The London Banker 4.80 8.00 84% $320
Accuse 3.90 7.00 107% $310
Suzy Grey 3.10 4.80 81% $170
Fields Of Omagh 4.60 6.00 39% $140
Air War 3.10 4.00 43% $90
Victory Vein 1.70 2.25 79% $55

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
My Sky Rocket 28.60 40.10 $1150
British Lion 31.30 36.60 $530
Dark Banner 11.20 15.00 $380
Bogart 15.90 18.90 $300


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