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3/8/2001 edition

The Truth:
Why All Horses Often Ease in the Betting

Last Saturday Moonee Valley had a Heavy rated track with the rail back in the True position. Before the second race of the day, a 2YO Open over 1000 metres, Sky listeners were told that all horses had been a little bit easy as punters were trying to sum up the track.

What? Sure, all the horses had eased. But did it have anyhing to do with punters trying to work out what the track was going to do? You see, the opening market was 145%. Now it's pretty hard to get value in a market like that.

To a put a market of 145% into perspective consider roulette in an Australian casino where there is one zero.
With a market of 145%:

Instead of being paid even money ($2.00) for correctly selecting a red or black number you are only paid 2/5 ($1.40).

Instead of being paid 2/1 ($3.00) for correctly selecting a number in the group 13 to 24 you are only paid 10/9 ($2.10).

Instead of being paid 35/1 ($36.00) for correctly selecting one number you are only paid 23/1 ($24).

Now you see what a horse racing betting market of 145% is.
Most likely any bet is a long term losing bet.

It's a pity the racing media don't tell you that.

Heavy tracks - be wary

You are asking for trouble taking very short odds about horses on Heavy tracks, particularly when they are two year olds resuming from a spell.

At Rosehill last Saturday the track was very, very, heavy. Pimpala Warrior resumed from a spell of five months at the short odds of $2.90. The colt never went a yard in the going. He was beaten by nearly 20 lengths. But he won convincingly in Slow going at Randwick in February this year.

A win on a Slow track does not mean a horse will handle a Heavy track, particularly if the track is very Heavy.

Heretiere won the race by over three lengths. His only race was 10 days earlier on a Good track. The race was a shocker for betting. Of the seven runners five had never raced on a track worse than Dead. The more unknown form factors there are in a race the more likely punters will lose money by betting on the race.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Jockey watch
Identify poor value bets - save your money
Flemington racetrack - yet again
Lightning Stakes - what a raffle

And much more...

Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
St. Steven 4.70 7.00 62% $230
De Arman 5.80 8.00 46% $220
Blab 5.20 7.00 43% $180
Brother's Jest 4.30 6.00 52% $170
The Wreck 6.40 8.00 30% $160

Back Tote Longshots?


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Dancing Reality 33.80 39.20 $540
Badger's Wood 31.60 36.20 $460
Shoemaker 10.70 14.70 $400
Hirschberg 17.60 19.70 $210
Freegold 9.40 11.20 $180
Sportsbrat 10.30 12.00 $170
What's Trumps 13.60 15.10 $150
Almighty Alliance 9.70 11.10 $140

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