3/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Jockey watch - Brisbane

The best jockeys, because of their skill, reduce the amount of bad luck their horses have. Have a close look at the rides of well known Brisbane hoop, Michael Pelling. Many of his horses now seem to be having a lot of bad luck.
Here are some examples from last Saturday.

In the 1200 metres Country Cup, Pelling settled Iron Ore a little better than midfield. In the straight he was badly held up searching for a run. The four year old gelding finished sixth in the 14 horse field.

In the last of the day, a Fillies and Mares Class 6 over 1400 metres, three year old filly Final Shuffle was settled midfield by Pelling. However, he never got a run in the straight until the race was over. The filly flew home and was the best of good things beaten.

Be on the lookout for significant jockey changes for many horses with bad luck stories. If Michael Cahill, Glen Colless, Stathi Katsidis or outstanding apprentice Zac Purton get the ride, that horse could instead have everything go right for it in the race and win at big odds.

No certainty

Hot Tin Roof was sent out as $1.65 favourite at Rosehill. Those were very poor odds considering the four year old gelding had never raced on a Heavy rated track and was also rising in weight from 52.5kg. to 56kg. He ran a great race and was just beaten. But $1.65. No thanks. With a 60% winning strike rate you're still losing money.

Harsh Praise too good

He had an outstanding win at Morphettville in a 2YO Open over 1000 metres on July 7 carrying 53.5kg. Last Saturday this gelding rose in weight to 56.5kg. at Cheltenham for his next race, over a similar distance, but was down in class to a restricted event.

Harsh Praise settled midfield, rounded up the field with ease and recorded a very soft win. However, in the 16 horse field his starting price of $2.50 was hardly value. There were six first starters and another five two year olds resuming from a spell. When there are so many unknown form factors, usually anything can and does win.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Identify poor value bets - save your money
Flemington racetrack - yet again
Lightning Stakes - what a raffle

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