8/6/2001 edition

Bet Smart and Win

Example One

How did punters know that two year old gelding Time Deposit would handle the Slow track at Rosehill? He had raced only once for a win on a Good track.

How did punters know that Time Deposit would handle the sharp jump in distance from 1200 metres at his first start on May 21 to 1500 metres second up on June 2?

How did punters know that Time Deposit's weight rise from 54.5kg. to 56kg. combined with a rise in class from a restricted race to an open handicap would not stop him from winning?

How did punters know that Time Deposit's significant jockey change from Glen Boss to Robert Thompson would not disadvantage the horse?

It seems plenty of punters thought they knew. More likely many didn't even consider the form but simply followed the media tip and the money. They even gave Time Deposit a much better chance of winning the race than all the other seven runners in the race combined. That's why they thought $1.60 on the tote or $1.85 with the bookmakers was a good price.

Time Deposit settled midfield. When put under pressure by jockey, Robert Thompson, Time Deposit found nothing and didn't even finish in a place.

How can punters take a short price like that about a horse with so many queries? No wonder so many punters lose. Don't follow them.

Example Two

The 1000 metres 2YO Colts and Geldings Open at Cheltenham saw the Tony McEvoy trained Wyndam Warrior, having his first race, sent out as $2.00 favourite in the nine horse field.

How did punters know that none of the other five first starters were better?

How did punters know that neither of the two lightly raced horses resuming from a spell would show dramatic improvement?

They didn't.

But many punters chose to bet completely blind and take even money about Wyndam Warrior.

Wyndam Warrior didn't run a place. Kolase, resuming from a spell, won by over three lengths and started at $31.00.

Another betting myth

It seems to be a standard punting myth that when there is a blanket finish the form is useless. There is a good reason for this.

In a blanket finish nothing will usually hit you in the face - take no effort or hard work to see. With a blanket finish you have to put in work, closely analyse the runs of the horses and study the video numerous times. With work you will often find one or two of those horses in a blanket finish who had bad luck in the race.

What makes a non winner

In the Class 6 2250 metres race at Cheltenham you saw clearly why Tangible has a very ordinary winning strike rate for a city standard horse. He put in a good finishing run, looked a certain winner, then plodded in for second.

Note horses that have a habit of doing that and stay clear of them.

Next pages
Two outstanding winners
Avoid these horses - save your money
Jockeys - see the difference
Why John Hawkes was not very happy
Life Is Beautiful - until???
And much more...

Top Odds Are Important

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