8/6/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Magic Albert - top win

Backing up at Rosehill a week after his first up win he carried 60kg. He was last on the home turn, went six wide and won in a canter. It was a top win.

Can't say much about the odds though. $1.70. Way too short.

Not to be outdone

20 minutes later at Eagle Farm classy colt Fubu was handicapped at 61.5kg. in a 1300 metres 3YO Open. He also had barrier 12 in the 15 horse field.

Jockey Kerrin McEvoy settled Fubu in a great position, just behind the leader but off the rails. Fubu won well and paid $21.70 on the New South Wales tote.

Now, that is the sort of price you look for when backing a class runner with a terrible handicap and a poor barrier. That is also precisely the sort of price most punters will avoid. Dare I say if Fubu was around $3.00 many punters who didn't back Fubu because of the price, "It can't win," would have been clamouring for a piece of the action.

Fubu was also given as a Horse Watch selection to our members. Our Horse Watch selections have a habit of finding winners at long odds who are practically impossible to rate.

If you backed Fubu on the Victorian tote you only got $13.70. With a $5 tote bet you missed out on $40 compared to best tote odds available. Bet smart. Don't let this happen to you ever again.

Race callers

Race callers generally can't properly assess form. When they tell you just before the jump that the TAB price "looks very good" they simply mean the price is currently shorter in the bookmakers' betting ring.

But that doesn't mean that the price could be poor value everywhere. Race callers who can properly assess form and odds that horses should be should sometimes tell you the price "looks terrible everywhere". How often do you get that sort of useful information from them?

More loose canons

Last Saturday in the 3YO Fillies Group 1 Queensland Oaks, Life Is Beautiful had a horror barrier, 18, in the 19 horse field. In the wide open race she was well in the market, starting at $10.00. Despite her barrier she worked to the lead and was travelling comfortably.

At the 700, Glen Boss, on $101.00 bolter Brave Tattler, made a lightning move wide around the field and put pressure on Life Is Beautiful. This of course made life considerably less beautiful for Brian York, the jockey of Life Is Beautiful. As a result Life Is Beautiful weakened over the last 50 metres and finished fifth.

If Life Is Beautiful had been left alone in the lead she would certainly have finished closer. Who knows, she may have even won. Tell you what, there were plenty of punters who were not impressed having their chances considerably reduced by a $101.00 bolter.

Don't play follow the big winner

On May 26 King Keitel won the 2020 metres Group 1 Weight For Age Doomben Cup, defeating Shogun Lodge and paid tote odds of $18.70. At Eagle Farm one week later in a 2400 metres Group 2 Weight For Age race, King Keitel was sent out the short $2.60 favourite and finished third.

It happens every week. As sure as night follows day punters take short odds about last start winners who won at long odds. You can bet your bottom dollar they didn't back the horse at the long odds. Punters cannot win long term by backing horses "after the odds have bolted".

To win long term at racing it helps if you can back horses who are not popular but have decent winning chances. That way you get good odds about them.

We tipped King Keitel. You also didn't find us backing him at $2.60 the following week.

Next page
Avoid these horses - save your money
Jockeys - see the difference
Why John Hawkes was not very happy
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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