9/3/2001 edition
Media Tips - Be Warned

In this column we regularly warn punters about the quality of advice they receive in the media. Today we will look at some of the advice given to punters by the columnists in last Friday's Sportsman.

As a publication we definitely recommend purchase of the Sportsman. It gives in a very readable format a horse's last nine runs as well as additional wins and a host of other valuable form information to help you back a winner. However some of the columnists at times, in the opinion of smart punters we know, hinder rather than help you in that search for a winner!

Last week in his column, "Running on Time", Greg Spletter gave three horses to follow from Brisbane: Desk Top Lover, Liam Lad and Krulewski. This is what smart professionals, not journalists, think of those selections as horses to follow:

1. Desk Top Lover
Why would anyone want to start following a five year old gelding who has two wins from 16 starts? Additionally Desk Top Lover had his first run in his current campaign way back on September 16, 2000 in a Newcastle Class 1. He has had 11 runs in his current campaign and is not open to the slightest improvement. If anything he needs a spell!

2. Liam Lad
He has been in work since October 28, 2000. This six year old gelding has had nine runs in his current campaign and is also not open to the slightest improvement.

3. Krulewski.
This four year old gelding has been working very hard in his current campaign which started on November 2, 2000. He had nine runs this campaign when recommended as a Horse to Follow by Greg Spletter.

If these had been listed under the heading "Don't Follow These Horses" then some decent information would have been given!

If you are going to start following a horse you don't wait until the horse is nearly at the end of his campaign and likely to put in a shocker. If you advise someone to follow a horse you also don't wait until the horse is nearly at the end of his campaign and likely to put in a shocker. Obviously this aspect of form analysis relating to fitness levels of horses and their ability to keep performing at peak levels does not appear to be relevant to Greg Spletter.

Maybe that is also why his top selections monitored by the Sportsman in Melbourne and Sydney show a total of 474 selections and a loss of $103.50 with one dollar bets at NSW tote prices. That is a loss on turnover of nearly 22%, considerably more than the tote deductions from the payout pool.

On that basis instead of backing his top selections you would do no worse by picking selections out of a hat or with a pin!!

Andre Kassay who has a better knowledge of racing than most appeared to go overboard in his comments on the Group 3 Mannerism Stakes at Caulfield.
He wrote in the Sportsman that "Typhoon Billie and Lady Marion look a certain quinella.." in the race.
Wrong. Lady Marion finished ninth in the 10 horse field. He should know there are no certainties in racing.

He also added that "The trick to the event is that Typhoon Billie and Lady Marion are the only two runners with any pace and will lob in the 1-2 positions."
Wrong again. Dazzling Belle settled second while Lady Marion settled fourth on the rails, a few lengths off the lead.

When commentators tell you, with an air of authority, how a race will be run, at best they are giving you nothing more than an educated guess and at worst they haven't got a clue.

Try recording some of those media comments from the radio and TV before the race and then listening to them after the race. It's good for a laugh.

Glen Boss - What a Shocker

Glen Boss won the Victoria Derby on Hit The Roof at Flemington during the Melbourne Cup carnival last year year but he did not have to do anything special from barrier two. Last Saturday at Caulfield Hit The Roof was fit and raring to go. He was also well supported in the betting ring from $5.50 to $4.20. However he had barrier 10 in the 11 horse field which would be a test of the jockey's skill.

You would assume a leading jockey will give your horse at least a half decent ride in a $400,000 race. However, Glen Boss's lack of initiative after the jump left the Hit The Roof three wide without cover for the entire trip. Hit The Roof was beaten under three lengths after covering an extra 10. I wonder if Glen Boss still expects payment for the ride?

An amateur punter was telling us the other week that Glen Boss is the best jockey in Australia. After a ride like that he's got to be kidding.

Next: Punt to Win 2/3/2001
Winning Tips
Value bets - an easy way to know

For our best information become a member.

Important Notice

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last Saturday?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.