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12/10/2001 edition

Betting Systems
Beware these Methods

Avoid these betting systems and methods

Because of the consistent unders on the tote the following forms of betting will most likely lose long term. It probably doesn't matter whether you work the selections out yourself or get them done by a computer.

1. Any trifecta methods based upon taking combinations of short priced tote horses to win and place. Short priced tote horses destroy trifecta dividends. Have two of them in the trifecta and the payout is not worth collecting.

2. All place betting methods based upon backing short priced tote horses.

a)
Tote place odds are consistently below bookmaker each way odds in fields of eight or more horses. Bookmaker each way odds for the place are one quarter of what you win with a win bet plus your original stake.

b)
Many years ago I put a substantial place bet on the Victorian tote when a horse was showing $1.10 just before the jump. I expected the horse to ease with money coming on for other horses as the $1.10 looked poor value. The horse returned $1.00 money back. What made me feel even sicker was that the horse suffered interference in the race and missed a place. I had my money going around to win nothing - but lost my entire bet. I felt thoroughly cheated and ripped off, even though the horse missed a place. Noone in their right mind makes a bet which can only lose but not win. It is impossible to win at the punt when that can happen. I have never put a place bet on the tote since.

Legislation still allows TABs to get away with paying a win dividend of $1.00 money back, but taking the stake should the bet not win. In our opinion with a sense of fair play they would put an end to such practises rather than wait for legislation some time in the future to force their hand. They already get plenty of money by rounding down dividends. Surely they could use some of that money to ensure every winning bet does actually win some money?

c) Rounding down also destroys anticipated dividends. You might expect $1.20 and because the price drops to $1.19 you receive $1.10. That's 50% less than expected. It doesn't work the other way. But it should.

3. Attempting to Dutch Book a number of horses up to 70% or 80% of the field in an attempt to say, double your money should you win. The poor odds compared to betting ring prices on many of the horses backed means the method will not work long term.

Because these are all consistently poor value bets they must produce a long term loss.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Follow the money?
Trainer watch
Class horses
TAB betting tips
Racing media myths
Spring Carnival favourites
And more...


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Belle Du Jour 6.40 9.00 48% $260
State Of Peace 4.50 6.50 57% $200
Osca Warrior 4.70 6.50 49% $180
Power Of Pegasus 5.50 7.00 33% $150
Defier 4.30 5.50 36% $120
Glenrowan 2.60 3.70 69% $110
Ugachaka 4.00 5.00 33% $100
Mandarin Princess 2.80 3.70 50% $90
Donnadane 2.20 3.00 67% $80
Boyzone 2.20 3.00 67% $80
Spectroscope 1.90 2.60 78% $70
Viscount 1.60 2.10 83% $50
Sir Kindle 2.20 2.60 33% $40
Sunline 1.90 2.25 39% $35
Commendable 1.80 2.10 38% $30

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
French Movie Star 16.10 22.40 $630
Archmobile 14.10 19.70 $560
Hidden Clause 19.20 24.20 $500
La Rieuse 22.90 26.10 $320
Debrief 22.70 25.80 $310
Analytic 11.20 14.10 $290
Marouch 11.30 13.90 $260


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