12/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Strategy

Follow the money?

1. The Maribyrnong Trial Stakes, a Listed 2YO set weights race over 900 metres was held at Flemington racetrack on Monday, October 1. Not one of the 11 runners had been in a competitive race!! The usual racing media advice was of course to "Follow the money." The smart advice, don't expect that from most in the racing media, would be to "Stay out." Or, "If you must bet, back horses at long odds with what are for you very, very small bets."

Damien Oliver was on $480,000 yearling, Zibellino who won a barrier trial three weeks earlier. Zibellino firmed from $3.00 to $2.50 on track before easing a touch to start the $2.60 favourite. At the barriers he dislodged Damien Oliver and cantered a few metres. Passed fit to run, he never got into the race and was beaten by 10 lengths!

As a yearling, the filly Bardego cost $45,000. Ridden by Greg Childs and trained by Leon Corstens at the track, she won the race by six lengths. Surely if the "follow the money" theory was right Bardego would have started long odds on? There would have to be support for her in the betting ring. There was none. Bardego paid up to $27.80 on the tote.

2. At Rosehill last Saturday, two year old filly Tannadice Park, trained by Bob Thomsen and ridden by Corey Brown had her first start in a restricted two year old race over 1100 metres. She had won a barrier trial by over four lengths.

The money came for her. After opening at $2.35 and getting out to $2.80 she firmed in the betting ring to $2.50. (Mind you, she was showing shorter tote odds at the jump). Considering the opening market was an unrealistic 150% that was a considerable go.

Tannadice Park had the widest barrier in the field, barrier eight. She had to do a little work early to lead. Over the last 100 she weakened and finished second, beaten by two lengths.

The winner of the race was Planchet, a first starter from the John Hawkes' stable. The colt was ridden by Rod Quinn and eased in the betting from $4.40 to start at $5.50. Again, because of the unrealistic opening prices you could say he was quite firm in the betting. He paid $7.00 on SuperTab for the win.

As for Tannadice Park - so much for following substantial bets on the filly. It is the standard horse racing media myth of telling punters to watch for the money in races full of first starters that lures many of them into betting as well.

Big money bet on horses in races full of first starters is not sensible money to follow. It may be stable money. It is also what we call "wealthy mug money". In our opinion no sensible, long term winning punter places substantial bets on horses in markets of around 130% to 150% combined also with a lack of knowledge of the other runners.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Follow the money?
Trainer watch
Class horses
TAB betting tips
Racing media myths
Spring Carnival favourites
And more...

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.

Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

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