Punt to Win

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15/9/2000 edition

Winning Betting Tips

Odds on, don't get on
Last week I made this comment about backing horses at odds on:
"To occasionally take odds on about a horse is like putting your head in a hot oven. To regularly take odds on is like putting your head in a hot oven and closing the door!"

All you have to do is see how the horses starting at odds on at Sandown and Warwick Farm last Sunday fared to realise there were many punters with their heads in that hot, closed oven!
At Sandown Lord Larwood started at 9/10 and was a well beaten second.
But it was at Warwick Farm that those backers of "certainties" were absolutely caned.

Spurred On
started at 4/5 and finished third. It needed spurring on.
Young Lang Syne with the grand record of two wins from 20 starts was sent out 4/6 favourite and finished third, beaten by three lengths. A smart punting acquaintance of mine, when he heard a fellow put one thousand dollars on the horse said ,"He's got more money than sense. If he keeps that up he'll have neither."
Rainbow Active next race started at 8/11 and just went down. That same fellow had it going for two thousand dollars, obviously trying to recover his losses and show a small profit. He looked rather sick after the race.

Well, there you have it. Four "certainties" and all losers. To make a small profit backing horses at those odds you have to consistently back six winners out of ten. Do you think it's a good deal to have to consistently back six winners out of ten in order to just show a very small profit? None of the professionals we know think it is.

Flemington flops
Ignore most horses that failed on that genuine Flemington Heavy on Saturday where not surprisingly many of the best performances were from fit, in form mudlarks. Many horses went around because they needed the run as part of their preparation for richer pickings down the track. Sky Heights which was sent out as favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup has come back well and Streak and Yammer both looked good.
Flemington as we repeatedly point out is in our view the worst city track for punters in the country. Rain affected and it is a nightmare.

Quick Tip Selection Method
1. Look for horses that finished in the placings, that is first, second or third at their last four starts in their current campaign.
2. Include any non placed run if it was within two lengths of the winner.
3. Last run must be on a metropolitan track unless it is a city standard horse.
This little method will give you plenty of horses to check out and regularly comes up with some good winners.

Follow Zariz
Last week I reported how boom colt Zariz sent out 4/11 favourite finished third in a field of six with jockey Brian York blaming the tactics of other riders. Zariz's trainer Gerald Ryan obviously disagreed and reportedly said that York should have got the horse to settle when they slowed up on him instead of going wide to the lead between the 800 and the home turn running fast time into a headwind. That made it impossible for the colt to keep going.

While disappointed with York's ride, he was not sacked for Darren Beadman who got the ride last Saturday. York had an appeal on against a suspension and Gerald Ryan decided he could not afford to await the outcome. However Beadman was under notice: if he didn't sit behind them he'd be off Zariz.

Beadman got Zariz to settle last Saturday and it won in sensational fashion showing blistering acceleration which only the most outstanding horses possess. Beadman immediately declared that Zariz was a super colt and certainly wants to keep the ride.
Interestingly Gerald Ryan now said the main reason Zariz lost the week before was the state of the track. One thing however, is for sure, Zariz is absolutely brilliant and if odds are available, get on! 

Next: Punt to Win 8/9/2000


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