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17/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Jockey Watch

1. Leading jockey Damien Oliver did it again.

In the third at Caulfield, a 3YO Fillies Open over 1100 metres he rode first starter Speaker. This filly cost $55,000 at the Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale. She was also trained at Caulfield by the astute Alan Bailey. Speaker was an impressive winner and paid up to $10.40 on the tote.

In the next at Caulfield a 3YO Colts and Geldings Open over 1100 metres he was on another first starter, Keldance. Keldance was very green but still but still finished the race off strongly for a close third. He paid $4.50 for the place on the New South Wales tote.

The best jockeys are in strong demand. Their managers reject plenty of rides. When a jockey like Damien Oliver accepts a ride on a first starter against horses who have mostly exposed form it is worth taking note. You can lay odds on he has been told the horse has shown well above average ability.

That's where you have the opportunity to make some money. Back the horse, but only if you get around $10.00. If the dogs are barking and every punter is on it there will be no value. Then you leave the horse alone.


Jockey Watch

2. Most apprentices in distance races are risky betting propositions, particularly if they are on short priced commodities.

In the first at Caulfield, a very ordinary six horse Open Handicap over 2020 metres, Bergamia was the short priced $3.20 betting ring favourite. He was even poorer value on the totes.

Two kilos claiming apprentice Lonagan Milham must have thought he was on Bernborough instead of a handy, honest, five year old gelding with five wins and $70,000 in prizemoney from 20 starts. Lonagan Milham settled Bergamia three lengths behind the second last horse. At the 800 he was 10 lengths from the leader and by the home turn was still eight lengths away.

Bergamia ran on nicely to be beaten under two lengths. But really, for punters that was just not good enough. A move should have been made earlier or the horse should have been more forward in the run.

Small fields commonly become a battle of tactics. Races over 2000 metres plus involve even more tactics. So why take short odds on most apprentices outriding experienced, senior jockeys in small fields over 2000 metres?


Your tote does not reward loyalty to horses!

It is quite amazing how punters, like ants to honey, swarm to back their home state horses, when they are racing interstate, on their local tote. Their tote will certainly not reward them for this patriotic loyalty to their local horses.

Last Saturday the John Hawkes trained Philotimo who has done most of his racing in New South Wales was racing at Caulfield in Victoria. He won the race and paid $5.90 on the Victorian tote (SuperTab). On the New South Wales tote he only paid $4.40. So much for home state loyalty.

In the betting ring $8.00 was readily available. The $50 punter who got $8.00 won $350. The $50 punter who got $4.40 won $170. That is an amazing $180 difference. How can punters have any chance of even breaking around square long term when they back winners and get such huge unders? Noone refunds punters a percentage of their losing bets to compensate.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Trainer John Hawkes - yet again!
This black book will make you money
Horses are not machines - this will save you money
And more...


Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Philotimo 4.40 8.00 106% $360
Agincourt Express 4.90 6.00 28% $110
Make Me A Miracle 4.90 6.00 28% $110
Kootoomootoo 3.10 4.00 43% $90
Aka Bilk 2.50 3.20 47% $70
Beryl 3.30 4.00 30% $70
Elite Ted 3.30 4.00 30% $70
Road To Heaven 1.70 2.00 43% $30

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Mistegic 42.90 52.80 $990
Casual Remark 15.90 21.60 $570
Big Bal Bowski 11.40 15.90 $450
Command The Wind 10.10 14.00 $390
Blue Star 9.90 13.20 $330
Tijuana Taxi 8.60 11.70 $310



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