19/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Tips

In our opinion possibly one of the most hyped up and overrated jockeys is Kerrin McEvoy because he has won a few huge races like last year's Melbourne Cup on Brew.

When New South Wales horse Freemason won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400 metres last Saturday at Caulfield, he started from barrier 11. Darren Gauci got him to the lead and dominated the race.

By contrast Kerrin McEvoy on the $4.00 favourite ($3.50 on the tote), The Secondmortgage, who started from barrier 13, was not able to successfully jockey for a position. The Secondmortgage had to work very hard, out wide early - he was four wide outside the leaders, before finally getting a good trail. What was he doing out there four wide?

For the entire home straight The Secondmortgage went head to head with Freemason in a battle for the lead. The hard work done by The Secondmortgage earlier in the race told; that's why he lost. But it was still a huge run by The Secondmortgage. Reverse the jockeys and The Secondmortgage would have won.

Kerrin McEvoy's riding statistics tell the story, just like cricketers' batting and bowling averages. He has a very ordinary win strike rate of only 8%. On favourites it is a low 20%. Compare that with Damien Oliver who has a win strike rate of 18%, while on favourites it is 30% or Jim Cassidy who has a win strike rate of 16%, while on favourites it is a huge 35%. The underrated Nash Rawiller has a win strike rate of 15%, while on favourites it is also a huge 34%.

It should be clear from these stats. that these jockeys, and there are many others, have a much higher winning strike rate than Kerrin McEvoy. You often lose punting dollars taking short odds on low strike rate jockeys just like you often lose punting dollars taking short odds on low strike rate horses.

Look at these odds

What was Defier doing being backed in from $5.00 to $4.20 favourite in the 1600 metres Group 1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield? The 18 horse race was an absolute raffle and should have been around seven or eight dollars the field!

In a race full of hard luck stories - the bigger the field the more likely there will be plenty of bad luck - Defier had absolutely no luck in the straight.

The John Hawkes' trained Crawl was also finishing fast along the rails and looked the likely winner until he was flattened.

Next pages
What a racing media blooper!
Future winners at big odds
Why bet in this race?
Was this the worst bet of the day?
Another Gai Waterhouse trained favourite
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