19/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Tips

Why bet in this race?

The usual plodders raffle, this time a 2450 metres Open Handicap, with 11 plodders, was held at Cheltenham. It was the sort of race where form was useless, where you have to line up one inconsistent animal with another and try and guess who will fluke the win on the day.

Punters naturally enough had difficulty sorting out a favourite. Tawtrice, who started from barrier 10 was eventually sent out the $5.50 favourite. This six year old gelding had managed a grand total of six wins and another eight places from 38 starts.

In what can only be described as a very ordinary ride by apprentice, Travis Creek, probably not helped by the quality of horse he was on, Tawtrice covered plenty of extra ground on the speed, three wide for the first 1200 metres. He got a stitch and was beaten by nearly 40 lengths.

The winner, six year old mare Deaconess, ran over the top of them in the straight to win. You'd hardly want to back her with any sort of confidence. She'd managed a paltry four wins and 10 places from 44 starts.

She paid poor tote odds of $7.00. Those gutless wimps masquerading as Adelaide bookmakers had top official betting ring odds of a pathetic $6.50 and a $100 bet must have made them shorten the odds to a starting price of only $6.00.

Mind you at top official betting ring odds the market for the race was 111%, rather generous for them. Must have been an aberration. They were back to a market of a nonsensical 120% at top official betting ring odds for the next race, an Open Handicap and followed up with a market in excess of 120% at top official betting ring odds for the race after, a 3YO Listed race.

What a racing media blooper!

This is what was written about a horse to watch from the third at Caulfield in "Ones to Watch", page 62 of Melbourne's Sunday Herald Sun, October 14, 2001:

"RACE 3 Runner-up Balbina proved she enjoys a firmer surface when she fought on strongly for second behind the smart Sydney filly Patterns. Should return to the winner's circle soon."

You see at her last start, on a Dead rated track Balbina was beaten by nearly 10 lengths. There's a bit of a problem though saying Balbina "enjoys a firmer surface." The Caulfield track was also rated Dead. It was just as firm as at Balbina's last start when she was beaten by nearly 10 lengths.

But there's an even bigger problem. Balbina was not the runner-up! She finished seventh, beaten by over four lengths! The runner-up, Hello Boys also had two wins from three starts on Slow and Heavy rated tracks.

It's a bit ironic that the column is called "Ones to Watch", isn't it? Seems they need to work that out for themselves.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Was this the worst bet of the day?
Another Gai Waterhouse trained favourite
For our best information become a member.

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.