19/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Tips

Worst bet of the day?

First up on October 3, the Gai Waterhouse trained four year old mare Trinity College, started at $3.50 and won a Class 3 at the provincial Hawkesbury racetrack by nearly six lengths. It was only her second win from 13 races.

Punters expected her to repeat the dose second up. Trinity College rose in class to a Saturday Mares restricted race. She also rose in weight by four kilos to top weight of 56kg.

However, if you looked further back in her form there were some very strong runs including second, beaten by a short head in a 2YO Group 1 set weights race in New Zealand in April last year.

Trinity College was sent out at $1.90! At Hawkesbury she was able to comfortably lead throughout. From barrier seven at Rosehill she had to work a little to get the lead, then overraced. She was gone at the home turn and finished eighth of 10.

No matter how good horses look when they win by many lengths, horses with substantial weight rises after those easy wins are always a risk.

Another Gai Waterhouse favourite

In the last at Caulfield, an Open Handicap, Kingsgate firmed from $6.50 to start as $5.50 favourite. He also had barrier nine in this 16 horse race.

Two weeks earlier Kingsgate had run a huge race with only 51.5 kg. in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap over 1400 metres, the same distance as Saturday's race at Caulfield, and finished second.

Weight stops a train. In some respects his Epsom form was really irrelevant. Give him 58kg. in the race and he would have run down the track. Would punters then have sent him out as favourite at Caulfield.

When horses run huge races with feather weights, then drop down substantally in class and rise substantially in weight, as a general rule they will not run anywhere near as well as their last start. The weight rise is designed to stop that. They become risky bets, very much so if the odds are short.

$5.50 is not exactly generous with top weight of 58kg. in a competitive 16 horse field. The racing media invented cliche, "The horse has the class to carry the weight," is no help whatsoever. It is a throw away line by journalists who usually have no idea.

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