21/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Alf Matthews, who's a "bit silly"?

When presenting his tips on Sky Racing for the third race at Moonee Valley, a 3YO Quality over 1600 metres, ever confident Alf Matthews must have thought Tarcoola Midnight was a "good thing". He told the viewers that, "You'll have to be a bit silly to go past the horse."

Tarcoola Midnight had convincingly won his last race at Flemington. But it was a restricted event. He was also a big striding horse, who may not have been suited to the tight Moonee Valley track. However he ran a strong race for third and was only beaten by half a length.

There were many lightly raced horses in the race who were open to substantial improvement. Always a red alert about taking skinny odds. The Lee Freedman trained Spitz won the race. He was a Listed race winner at his first start in February this year. On Saturday he was third up from a spell. Second up, one week earlier, he suffered major interference at Flemington. He caught most punters out and paid $20.00.

Alf Matthews, at a skinny $2.25 you would have to be a "bit silly" to back Tarcoola Midnight. By the way, who also couldn't go past Sunline? No prizes for guessing.

Just a believer - no more

The bigger the field, the more things can go wrong taking short odds about a horse. Consider the 3YO Class 6 at Eagle Farm last Saturday, a 13 horse field.

Just A Believer, had won in brilliant fashion at Doomben at her previous start, two weeks earlier, after getting a late opening and bursting through the field. Her price then was $17.00.

This filly has a habit of starting slowly and settling well back in the field. At Eagle Farm she had drawn barrier one. That should have set the alarm bells ringing. With a barrier not suited to backmarkers, who'd want to take short odds about a horse who had won at $17.00 at her last start after needing luck in running to get clear?

Why? Plenty of punters who like to play the game of "chase the winner that got away." Helped by the media hype about the horse after the win at big odds. That same media were conspicuously silent about the horse before the win.

Just A Believer started at the prohibitive odds of $2.50. True to form, she settled well back on the rails. She was held up in the straight and had to go wide looking for a run. Over the last 150 she ran on, but finished sixth, beaten by four lengths.

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