21/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Carnival races - beware the pitfalls

Apart from the evenness of the fields there is one major reason why many Carnival races are very tricky betting affairs.

Many horses in the race are not there to win!! Don't get me wrong, they are trying, but whether the $100,000 race is won or not is really irrelevant. The horse has been set for far richer pickings down the track and the lead up races are just that - glorified trials under race and prizemoney conditions which will help have the horse at its peak some time in the future.

Consider the run of the Lee Freedman trained Ugachaka in the $100,000 3YO Group 3 C. S. Hayes Stakes over 1200 metres at Moonee Valley last Saturday.

In the betting ring the filly firmed from $4.80 to $3.80 favourite. However, in the race the filly settled well back in the field, was well back seven wide around the home turn and was never a winning chance. She ran on strongly and finished fifth, beaten by over two lengths.

The filly is being aimed for some longer races. With that in mind her strong finish, though never a winning chance, was very pleasing to connections. There's a completely different agenda to the punters who took the $3.80 and never got a look in.

Consider for example, comments by the connections of Sunline after her defeat. While of course they would have liked to have won last Saturday, that Sunline didn't win was really irrelevant to them. She ran a good, close second to Northerly, and beat the next horse home by five lengths. She is being aimed to reach peak fitness on Cox Plate Day. Anything she picks up along the way is a bonus.

Century Kid - a win is near

Talk about having no luck this time in. First up on August 11, he was the best of things beaten, when terribly held up for a run in the straight.

Next start on August 25 he had no luck from barrier nine, including being caught wide, being checked and galloped on.

Then last Saturday he started from barrier 14 of 15. He was out very fast to lead but was grabbed on the line. If he had drawn a decent barrier and started just as well he would have had no problems comfortably winning.

Despite this bad luck he has still won six of 16 starts. Maybe it's a case of fourth time lucky next start?

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