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Punt to Win |
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25/4/2003 edition Doncaster Handicap Day When bookmakers bet markets of 130%, 140% or even worse, "I can't make a book because the punters don't bet on all the horses. Look at the horses I haven't laid. I'm really betting to 105% in this race," is a reason that is often given. Mathematically it is just as flawed as a casino telling you that instead of 35/1 on any single number, because 15 of them were not bet for the coming spin they'll only be paying you 20/1. I once replied to one of those bookmakers who he told me his market of 135% was really only just over 100% because of the horses he couldn't lay: "That's fair enough. But I also presume you're giving everyone refunds if one of the horses you can't lay wins as you're not including them in your market?" The bookie was not impressed. You would think last Saturday, Doncaster Handicap Day at Randwick, that the bookies would have no excuse for offering tight odds to punters. Take the $2.4 million Doncaster Handicap. Millions of dollars were bet on the race. We should have expected a top fluctuation market of not much over 100% and a starting price market at maybe around 110%. So what did we get? A top fluctuation market of over 116%. What poor betting odds. Presumably the attitude was: "Look at the thousands of once a year punters. They're here
because it's an occasion - Doncaster Handicap Day. They want to have fun, have a drink and a bet. They're not really interested in the odds they get as long as they seem to be OK." This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Specials |
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