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6/2/2004 edition

Starcraft $36.50 Wins The Debonair

To bet or not to bet, that is the question

It was no surprise to us that most punters lost money betting in this $200,000 3YO Group 3 race at Flemington. It was a betting disaster waiting to happen.

1. The Flemington track was rain affected, rated Slow.

2. Every one of the 12 runners last starts was on a Good rated track. That makes assessing current form very tough when track conditions vary so dramatically.

3. A number of the runners, including the winner Starcraft had no exposed wet track form. There was only one runner with more than three starts on Slow or Heavy tracks.

4. Exposed form at the distance was also minimal.

We didn't like the racing last Saturday. So we just provided our Stable runners - a horses to follow betting method based upon certain guidelines. These found $17.00 winner Maskerado. But we didn't rate any races. There were also no Super Specials. No Gold Specials.

There's always another race. There's always another raceday.

No punter should feel any compulsion to bet in any particular race or on any particular raceday.

When races are held in Melbourne full of unraced 2YOs with no trial form, absolutely no exposed form at all, if punters as a group refused to bet in such races you'd quickly find they would no longer be held. Then you'd get races where all the runners had at least some exposed form so you would be able to make some intelligent assessments rather than just pure guesswork should you have a bet.

This edition of Punt to Win:
To bet or not to bet
Horse racing betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/1/2004
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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