6/2/2004 edition

Horse Racing Systems
and
Betting Tips

Here is a very interesting betting system posted in our Forum on January 30, 2004 by sportznut. "This is really an each-way betting plan," wrote sportznut, "because it does okay for the win AND place. As with most of my plans, you can figure out the selections just using a very basic form guide." Here is the system:

1. The system operates on Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia meetings each day. However use only metropolitan meetings on Saturdays.

2. Eliminate 2YO races, maidens, races less than 1200 metres and jump races.

3.There must be at least eight starters after scratchings.

4. Consider TAB number one provided it is between $3.00 and $7.00 in pre-post betting.

5. The horse must have been placed at both of its last two starts. It must also have had at least two starts since a spell.

6. It must have had at least three career starts.

7. It must be handicapped at no more than 58kgs. Ignore apprentice claims.

8. Eliminate any horse which has won its last two starts.

The horse only becomes a selection if it complies with ANY of the following plans:

Plan A:
It has won either at the track or at the distance.

Plan B:
It was a beaten favourite last start.

Plan C:
It has had either two or three starts since a spell.

Plan D:
It is starting from either the inside or the outside barrier.

The horse becomes a special if it qualifies as a selection for more than one of the four plans.

Results since commencement of betting in late November.

Plan A:
Selections 69
Wins 28
Win return $141.20
Win profit 104%
Places 48
Place return $89.70
Place profit 30%

Plan B:
Selections 24
Wins 12
Win return $45.90
Win profit 91%
Places 19
Place return $36.20
Place profit 51%

Plan C:
Selections 35
Wins 15
Win return $56.70
Win profit 62%
Places 28
Place return $49.50
Place profit 41%

Plan D:
Selections 17
Wins 8
Win return $33.90
Win profit 99%
Places 14
Place return $24.80
Place profit 46%

All Plans combined:
Selections 100
Wins 38
Win return $178.00
Win profit 78%
Places 74
Place return $133.10
Place profit 33%
Specials:
Selections 37
Wins 19
Win return $74.00
Win profit 100%
Places 31
Place return $52.10
Place profit 41%

Past profits of this system could be better than above. sportznut has used tote prices, but in Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan meetings horses well in the market in races with exposed form are usually much better odds with bookmakers. sportznut posted a long, detailed list of past results. Here are examples of how you could have done much better with bookmaker odds:

Zazzman
Tote - $4.80
Bookmaker - $8.50

Make A Stand
Tote - $6.10
Bookmaker - $7.50

No Deposit
Tote - $5.10
Bookmaker - $6.00

Jamieson Valley
Tote - $3.00
Bookmaker - $4.00

Silver Birch
Tote - $3.50
Bookmaker - $4.70

If you like using systems we suggest you use this system as a guide. It is a simple fact that if hundreds of punters all back the same horse or system selections on the tote then the tote odds will be lowered, even to the point where the selections no longer make a profit.

This edition of Punt to Win:
To bet or not to bet
Horse racing betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/1/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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