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8/8/2003 edition

Win or Each Way Betting?

Where are the best odds?
What horses should I back?

Many punters automatically back horses each way on the tote. Below are some stats about fields of eight runners and more which will get you thinking about whether that is such a good idea.

In fields of eight runners or more bookmakers betting each way will give you one quarter the win odds for the place. With pre decimal odds working out the 1/4 each way dividend was easy. Just divide by four and add your dollar. Eg. 8/1 divide by four = $2 plus add your dollar stake and you get $3.00.

With decimal odds 8/1 is $9.00. To work out the true quarter each way odds with decimal prices you take $1.00 off the price, divide that amount by four then add the dollar back. Eg for $9.00: divide $8.00 by four = $2.00, then add the dollar back and one quarter each way odds are $3.00.

Horses that were 4/1 ($5.00), were traditionally called as being at each way odds, because if you backed them each way, eg. $50 for the win and $50 for the place, should the horse not win but finish second or third, then the $50 win bet would be lost but you would win $50 for your place bet and so break even.

Let's have a look at the betting market percentages from race eight at Rosehill last Saturday. To work out what percentage a horse forms of the market simply divide 100 by its odds. So if a horse is $5.00, then 100 divided by 5 equals 20%. Do that for the price of every horse in a race, add the total, and you have the betting market percentage.

For win betting the closer the betting market percenatge is to 100%, the better it is for the punter. For place betting with three places, the closer it is to 300%, the better it is for the punter.

SuperTab tote win and place prices:

Wyangan Pines $2.70 $1.40
Red Trinket $5.70 $ 2.10
Catch Me Mate $6.90 $1.90
Turaga $7.40 $2.10
Sir Craiglee $7.70 $2.80
Bosworth $14.00 $3.70
Shags $14.20 $3.20
Jivago $38.20 $8.20
Outlaws $50.70 $8.90
Daniel's The Man $53.70 $8.90
Bondi Iceberg $80.50 $11.00
Win market: 117.44%
Place market: 357.06%

Because of the rounding down of dividends on the tote, the place market percentage will always be more than three times the win betting percentage, which means it is a better market for the tote and a worse betting market for the punter.

Now compare those tote prices with bookmaker odds. We have firstly used the top fluctuation win and place prices. Top fluctuation is also not necessarily the highest price available in the betting ring.

Wyangan Pines $2.70 $1.43
Red Trinket $7.00 $ 2.50
Catch Me Mate $9.00 $3.00
Turaga $8.00 $2.75
Sir Craiglee $9.50 $3.13
Bosworth $16.00 $4.75
Shags $16.00 $4.75
Jivago $31.0 $8.50
Outlaws $101.00 $26.00
Daniel's The Man $41.00 $11.00
Bondi Iceberg $41.00 $11.00
Win market: 107.07%
Place market: 288.12%

The prices for the place are vastly superior than tote odds. With a market below 300% the break even level bookmakers would lose on the place betting portion of their each way bets. That's certainly not the case with the tote, which wins even more on the place betting portion of each way bets.

Now compare these prices with bookmaker starting price odds. (Any punter going to the racetrack should be able to obtain significantly better prices than just starting price.)

Wyangan Pines $2.40 $1.35
Red Trinket $6.00 $ 2.25
Catch Me Mate $7.00 $2.50
Turaga $7.00 $2.50
Sir Craiglee $8.50 $2.88
Bosworth $12.00 $3.75
Shags $15.00 $4.50
Jivago $31.0 $8.50
Outlaws $101.00 $26.00
Daniel's The Man $41.00 $11.00
Bondi Iceberg $31.00 $8.50
Win market: 122.78%
Place market: 318.58%

The bookmaker place market percentage is still vastly superior to the tote's 357%. It's equivalent to a win betting market of 106.19%. What conclusions can be drawn?
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Win or each way betting?
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Caulfield, Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/8/2003
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830
Glefti 18.20 25.70 $750


 

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