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1/8/2003 edition

Tote or Bookmaker Odds

Where are the best odds?

It really depends on when you're betting and what horses you are backing.

It's generally well known that longshots are usually better odds on the tote, provided you don't bet too much on them, in which case you won't get the odds you think you will, as the tote odds will firm.

However very competitive bookmakers like IAS, with a product called DiviPlus, guarantee to beat the best tote odds. The maximum payout at those odds is limited to some thousands of dollars, not tens of thousands. That of course is just fine for the average punter.

When bookmaker top fluctuation markets are over 120%, then as a whole tote markets are better value. This applies in particular to most midweek racing, with very thin and poor bookmaker markets. Adelaide and Brisbane Saturday racing has also become very ordinary for bookmaker top fluctuation markets.

However, our stats for Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan Saturday racing shows that bookmaker top fluctuations for horses starting at $5.50 or shorter, over the long term, are substantially better than the tote - admittedly we compared prices with just one tote, SuperTab.

However more than one third of the time that will be the top tote price. Where a horse has been plunged you will see that the tote bettor often ends up getting below the plunged bookmaker starting price. The TF bettor does substantially better.

Here are last Saturday's results from Melbourne and Sydney where we compare the three main totes with TF for winning horses with a starting price of $5.50 or shorter:

Moonee Valley:

Topzoff
Starting price:$2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Tote odds range: $2.00 - $2.20

Marwina Lass
Starting price:$4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
Tote odds range: $3.20 - $3.60

Storm Attack
Starting price:$3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Tote odds range: $2.90 - $3.30

Delvecchio
Starting price:$5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
Tote odds range: $4.50 - $5.00
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Best betting odds - bookmaker or tote?
Become an expert - win by specialising
Adelaide bookmakers - are you encouraging punters to bet with you?
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham, Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/7/2003
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830
Glefti 18.20 25.70 $750


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