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1/8/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, July 26.

Moonee Valley: Track Heavy

R1 $40,000 Hurdle (12 hurdles).
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Topzoff
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 4 lengths
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $3.00
Tote dividends' range: $2.00 - $2.20
Jockey: Adrian Garraway
Trainer: Peter Healey

Cheltenham: Track Slow

R1 $20,000 3YO Rs1mw. Handicap
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Excels
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctation: $1.40
Tote dividends' range: $1.30 - $1.50
Jockey: Chris Bryant
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R5 $70,000 2 & 3YOs. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dantana
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $1.20
Top fluctation: $1.25
Tote dividends' range: $1.30 - $1.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Best betting odds - bookmaker or tote?
Become an expert - win by specialising
Adelaide bookmakers - are you encouraging punters to bet with you?
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham, Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/7/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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