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9/1/2004 edition

Betting Tips and Gambling Strategy

Recently I was able to discuss betting with a very successful professional. This person obviously does not want to be identified worldwide over the internet, so we will call him David. Over the coming weeks we'll have a look at what David had to say about how to bet.

Stop betting on the day when you've won a set amount

David said, "It is not logical to stop betting after a predetermined amount of profits have been made for the day."

I asked, "Why is that? Many punters aim to take out a set profit for the day and then stop as a winner. Surely there is no harm in that?"

To which David replied, "All punters should know what they are going to bet and how they are going to stake their selections before the races start. The only qualification needed is that the right price is obtained about each selection. It is easy these days to get top prices without having to go to the races. Bookmakers take top fluctuation bets where you can even give the minimum odds you want or your bet is off, there are betting exchanges and of course options for longshot betting like IAS where you get better than best tote odds."

David then added, "If you are making good profits your future selections for the day do not know that you have won. How they go has absolutely nothing to do with what happened earlier in the day. Their performance is completely independent of what happened earlier. I have never stopped my betting for the day because of some randomly set dollar profit amount for the day being made. Over the long term to do so would have cost me money, not saved me money."

However, David did admit that there were some valid reasons to stop betting as a winner when you were a set amount in front. Here they are:

1. It's good psychologically to win. Similarly, for many punters it's not good psychologically to see their day's profits disappear, even when betting in an organised manner.

2. If punters are "doing the form" from race to race - definitely not recommended - then they should stop when a set amount in front, as most of these punters will lose those profits and more by day's end.

3. Many punters who start out in a disciplined manner, with selections made before the races start, do not have the strict discipline needed once they are showing good profits for the day and will then bet up, or in some other way change their future bets. There's nothing worse than winning with a number of predetermined $100 bets and then going and losing everything on one of your other selections by making a spur of the moment large bet, say $1,000, instead of betting $100. Or by putting everything on some horse you never intended to back because you heard a whisper, or saw a betting plunge on it.

4. Just to emphasise the point about discipline, David also mentioned the longshots that our marketed betting package finds. He added, "Surely you should know it is lack of discipline that causes many punters to lose with your own selections? How many of your members who use your information to back longshots had the discipline to back Blerick the other week at $56.00? The attitude by many would have been,"It can't win at those odds," and it wouldn't have been backed."

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you stop betting for the day when a set amount has been won?
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/12/2003
Punt to Win index


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Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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