9/1/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 3.

Warwick Farm: Track Good
R1 $45,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Natural Embrace
Result: first
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R2 $45,000 3YO Fillies. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Marfickle
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Jack Denham

R4 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Striking Victory
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctation: $2.90
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Takas
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

R5 $45,000 3YO and upward. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2112 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Capri
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Ronnie Stewart
Trainer: Mario Caltabiano
Winner: Beale Street
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Joseph Pride

R6 $45,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Southern Rose
Result: third
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.20
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: St. Jessie
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller

Moonee Valley: Track Good
R1 $40,000 2YO Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Kentucky Wildcat
Result: second
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Danaurum
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.10
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R4 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Abdullah
Result: first
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Noonan

Doomben: Track Good
R2 $24,000 3YO Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Star Of Sequalo
Result: first
Starting price: $1.25
Top fluctation: $1.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Chris Spry
Trainer: John Shelton

R4 $24,000 Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Pistol Knight
Result: second
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctation: $2.00
Jockey: John Powell
Trainer: Shaun Dwyer
Winner: Blerick
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.60
Jockey: Ken Pope
Trainer: Mark Sims

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you stop betting for the day when a set amount has been won?
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/12/2003
Punt to Win index

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