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16/4/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, April 9 .

Warwick Farm: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO Fillies. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cinque Cento
Result: second
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Tony Wildman
Winner: Fumble
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $30,000 3YO and upward. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Caught Courting
Result: third
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Guy Walter
Winner: Royal Ninja
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Kevin Moses

R4 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2130 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: No Penalty
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Zingham
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Guy Walter

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips that everyone knows will win
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Warwick Farm, Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 9/4/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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