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16/4/2005 edition

Betting Tips
That Everyone "Knows"

We repeatedly stress on this site that to win long term at racing you must have an angle that is different from the "public". If you bet like everyone else, take the same odds as everyone else, then you will get their results, which is a long term loss.

As an example of this it's worth having a look at what happened when everyone "knew" John Hawkes was going to win plenty of races:

"John Hawkes and the Melbourne Trainers' Premiership
Everyone "knew" that John Hawkes, eager to win the Melbourne trainers' premiership, was bringing down horses from Sydney in July to complement his Melbourne team of horses.

Have a look at the table below. It shows how the John Hawkes' trained horses performed in July on Saturdays in Melbourne - the horses that everyone "knew" were primed for big races to help John Hawkes win the trainers' premiership.

Flemington 5/7/2002
Horse
$ SP Odds
Finish
Domine
6.00
6/15
Gramercy
3.50
7/13
Victorix
10.00
4/13
Naareda
10.00
3/13
Lilindeeana
10.00
7/14
Moonee Valley 12/7/2002
Horse
$ SP Odds
Finish
Tito
3.00
4/13
Hollow
13.00
8/13
Gradual
3.20
7/12
Kepero
7.00
4/13
Tweak
9.00
7/13
Old Man
8.00
4/12
Caulfield 19/7/2002
Horse
$ SP Odds
Finish
Lambeth
8.00
6/11
Volley
17.00
10/11
Palais
3.50
4/7
Gramercy
11.00
4/15
Malo
8.00
8/15
Sports
13.00
9/11
Philotimo
6.50
6/9
Boreale
2.35
2/13
Orthopaedic
12.00
12/15
Moonee Valley 26/7/2002
Horse
$ SP Odds
Finish
Snick
4.00
3/7
Gironde
21.00
5/13
Boreale
3.50
9/13
Old Man
4.60
5/8
Victorix
5.00
10/15

What an absolute disaster. 25 runners - not one winner. Many were favourites. Most were kept very safe in the betting. There were eight horses that started under $5.00. Because punters "knew" the horses were set to win, as John Hawkes wanted to win the trainers' premiership, you can bet that his horses would most likely be under the odds on the tote and with the bookies. That's the way horse racing betting operates.

As we repeatedly stress on this site, what everyone "knows" in horse racing is guaranteed to provide you ways of losing betting money long term, nothing else. It can be no different, because racing is a negative sums game which consistently returns less money than is outlaid in bets."
Based on Punt to Win, 2nd. August, 2002.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips that everyone knows will win
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Warwick Farm, Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/4/2005
Punt to Win index


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