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18/10/2002 edition

Class Weight Ratings

Continued from previous page

Are they the answer?

There's a very interesting debate in our popular horse racing forum in the Betting Systems section titled "Why do the majority of betting systems fail?" about class and weight ratings.

"becareful" added on October 14, 2002:

"The Phoenix, that was my point exactly - class/weight ratings is simply one approach but people who believe that it is the ONLY approach are closing their eyes to other possibilities. Someone else mentioned elsewhere on this forum that you need to find your own approach to make a profit in punting - if you just do what everyone else does then you will lose money (like everyone else does!).

If everyone is doing class/weight ratings then maybe looking elsewhere is not such a bad idea. Personally I am currently using two different systems in my betting (and working on or testing several others) - one of them is based on class/weight and one is not."

"Dr. Pangloss" further added on that same day:

" An excellent thread and don't disagree with anything anyone has said thus far. However, it is interesting to note the "How to Win" debate always seems to gravitate toward the selection process.

A long term professional punter on another forum ranked the importance of the selection process third behind STAKING and PSYCHOLOGY. Yet another wisened old pro signs off his posts with the reminder, "An average handicapper with superior betting skills will outperform a superior handicapper with average betting skills."

Nevertheless I'm not expecting the topic of most posts to stray too far from selection methodology anytime soon."

In our opinion "Dr. Pangloss's points are relevant for any selection method. It's no good having $5 on your winners and $100 on your losers. Psychology is interesting - I believe there is a herd mentality when it comes to backing horses.

Why does everyone in the media tell punters what horses the money has come for? Why do we regularly hear tales of woe from punters who were going to back the winner but didn't because it eased in the betting and instead put their money on a firmer that lost?

It's also worth noting that there are good class/weight ratings and poor class/weight ratings. Just like there are good horses and poor horses. Just like there are good athletes and poor athletes.

One of the skills in creating good class/weight ratings is deciding what key runs to use, knowing whether or not and how much to penalise horses for bad barriers, inferior jockeys and so on. How much notice in kilos do you take for a horse that had bad luck at its last start. Do you penalise a backmarker? By how much if there does not appear to be much pace in the race? It's very complex.

That is why class/weight ratings prepared by different handicappers often vary dramatically from one another. All ratings are not the same.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bel Esprit - huge Caulfield Guineas run
Watch these horses from Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Discussion - weight and class handicapping
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Caulfield plunge horses
Money talks - Eagle Farm plunge horses
Money talks - Victoria Park plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/10/2002
Punt to Win index

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