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Punt to Win |
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18/10/2002 edition Class Weight Ratings Are they the answer? There's a very interesting debate in our popular horse racing forum in the Betting Systems section titled "Why do the majority of betting systems fail?" about class and weight ratings. "darkydog" posted on October 14, 2002: "becareful there has never been any legend of the turf to my knowledge who has attained that status on the back of a racing system. On the contrary, from Don Scott to Warren Block and others they have consistently warned against them. If you want to win over a long period of time then you must use class/weight ratings. All I a trying to do is put people on the right track." "The Phoenix" replied on October 14, 2002: " I suggest that a class/weight ratings approach is simply another (of many) systems. The goal is to be able to select horses on which one can obtain a higher price than their real chances of winning the race, ie make a profit. Whether the system is based on weight/class, particular form lines, particular breeding, a preference for one track rather than another is not the issue, only whether over a long period of time they do or do not make a profit. On the other side of the ledger, the bookies want to do the opposite, offer horses at prices which are under their true chance of winning and therefore ensure that the punter makes a loss and they make a profit. Prior to the running of a race, the difference is simply opinion and the bookie is no more sure that their opinion is right than the punter is. Some of the greatest winners at the track did not follow
class/weight ratings at all. Their methods could better be desribed as
a set of rules or axioms which they had determined, probably by trial
and error and making losses, that gave them enough winning bets to make
a profit. They are or were for their time perfectly valid systems albeit
probably peculiar ones so anyone who claims that class/weight ratings
are right and everything else is wrong in my opinion misses the main point
which is MAKE A PROFIT. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Specials |
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