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23/1/2004 edition

Betting Tips and Gambling Strategy

Betting systems

"...the problem with quite a few systems is NOT the system itself, but the user. How many times have people been following a basically pretty good system and as soon as it has a small run of outs, they go off it and the next day up pops a nice winner. Similarly, a system might be going so bad, the user decides to totally forget about it. In a month or two, it might produce winner after winner, but by that time the punter is busy betting on their next surefire winning system.

One thing that always causes a problem for system punters is that sometimes you have to back horses that you honestly don't think can win. That $93 winner that I mentioned in my previous post... I didn't honestly think it had a hope in hell of winning, but it was a selection for my system, so I had a $1 each way on it and look what happened!

If you want a good place to start, collect all your form guides and take a regular look at them to see if you spot any sort of trends. Horses with certain formlines might seem to win a bit more regularly than you might expect, or they might even seem to produce regular big priced winners. Once you spot some sort of trend, try to formulate simple sensible rules and try it on paper for a while.

I would suggest that if you want good value, you should look at the sort of things that a lot of other punters shy away from. Hence my outside barrier thing. I used to be mainly just a Saturday punter, but recently I decided to have a go seven days a week, so currently I am trying to sort out how my systems go betting every day.

All of my systems were created from simply studying old form guides and going from there. They have certainly not all been profit makers, but I give them a fair go before I decide to sack them for good. Basically, as long as your system is reasonably logical and simple and you look for some sort of value, then you do have a chance."

Posted in the Horseracing Forum by sportznut on January 20, 2004.

Sensible horse racing betting systems have a number of advantages for the average punter. These include:

1. Having solid selections for the day that do not take a lot of time to work out.

2. Importantly these selections are not worked out on the run after each race. That is the downfall of many punters whose selections during the day are influenced by how their earlier selections have gone that day.

3. Systems also give punters the chance to be disciplined with their betting.

4. If you are able to assess what minimum odds you should obtain with each system selection (these odds do not need to be the same for each selection,) then you have a very good chance of making a long term betting profit from your system selections.

5. Finally, it is best to avoid most commercial horse racing betting systems. These may have many hundreds of people betting on the same selections which of course affects the odds. In addition, many of these systems use rules, however illogical, invented to fit the past results and create a substantial past profit. This means the systems have little chance of holding up in the future.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting systems
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Caulfield, Warwick Farm betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/1/2004
Punt to Win index

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