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23/1/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 17.

Warwick Farm: Track Dead
R1 $45,000 3YO Fillies. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Catreign
Result: first
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John O'Shea

Doomben: Track Heavy
R3 $25,000 3YO Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 2020 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Pistol Knight
Result: third
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctation: $2.25
Jockey: John Powell
Trainer: Shawn Dwyer
Winner: Charlotte Sound
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.80
Jockey: Lacey Morrison
Trainer: Michael Nolan

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting systems
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Caulfield, Warwick Farm betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/1/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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