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7/1/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 1.

Randwick: Track Good
R1 $30,000 4YO and upwards. Rs1Sc. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Men At Work
Result: second
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Havana Wind
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lord Bubbles
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Saxon
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R3 $55,000 4YO and upwards. Rs2Sc. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Octennial
Result: fifth
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Bennetts Green
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.70
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Albert Stapleford

Morphettville: Track Good
R4 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mt. Billy
Result: first
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Jeremy Gask

This edition of Punt to Win:
Is place only betting value?
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields - 18/12/2004
Betting favourites in small fields - 26/12/2004
Betting favourites in small fields - 1/1/2005
Betting tips from the track, 18/12/2004 - Randwick and Flemington
Betting tips from the track, 26/12/2004 - Randwick and Caulfield
Betting tips from the track, 1/1/2005 - Randwick and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/12/2004
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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