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7/1/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, December 18.

Randwick: Track Good
R1 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Loftily
Result: first
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Allan Denham

R2 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Our Highlander
Result: fifth
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Jymcarew
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.40
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Bob Thomsen

Flemington: Track Good
R1 $60,000 2YO. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Ready To Mombo
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Ferocity
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Vincent Hall
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R3 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Processor
Result: first
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

Victoria Park: Track Good
R1 $22,000 2YO. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Holding Court
Result: second
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Tuscan Wings
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Woman Eyes
Result: first
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Layla Stra
Trainer: Peter Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Is place only betting value?
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields - 18/12/2004
Betting favourites in small fields - 26/12/2004
Betting favourites in small fields - 1/1/2005
Betting tips from the track, 18/12/2004 - Randwick and Flemington
Betting tips from the track, 26/12/2004 - Randwick and Caulfield
Betting tips from the track, 1/1/2005 - Randwick and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/12/2004
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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