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17/12/2004 edition

Identifying Good Betting Races

"This is a good betting race, this...The reason it's such a good betting race is that there's so much guessing going on and that's good. There's some disclosed form, there's a bit of trial jump out form, then there's nothing. In the end of the day I think a lot of people think they have a horse that gallops particularly well and because they don't know a lot about the others I think they decide to have a go, which is pretty good thinking."
(Race caller at Eagle Farm, Novmber 2000, as the horses were going into the barriers for the first race.)

A number of astute punters we know were a little flabbergasted at that. They could not believe that such a poor betting race was being called a "good betting race".

The race was a 2YO Fillies Open over 1000 metres. Exactly half of the field, five fillies, had never raced before. Only one of those five, Thylacine, had a barrier trial. The others had no disclosed form but included fillies from the strong Tinsley, McLachlan and Mitchell stables.

The five fillies with race experience included three with only one start, Cossego a three lengths winner over 850 metres at a Sunshine Coast maiden four weeks earlier, while Spindle and Ashley Kate had both run respectable fourths at Doomben. Two fillies had raced three times, with top weight Idesa Bay finishing second in a 2YO Open over 1110 metres two weeks earlier.

There are good betting races and there are GOOD betting races. Maybe the race caller was calling the race a good betting race.

"What is the difference?"  you may well ask. 

In a good betting race there is:

1. A lot of activity in the betting ring.

There are many form queries.

. Many horses are given a chance of winning.

On paper it looks a raffle.

5. Many punters decide to "have a go" and back horses at $10.00 thinking they are getting value when the opposite is the case. The horses are true $20.00 chances or even worse.

To cut things short it is exactly the type of race that punters who want to give themselves a decent chance of winning over the long term usually leave alone. Punters who have a big go in these races usually have the odds heavily stacked against them.

The odds were massively stacked against punters in that 2YO Fillies Open mentioned above. An important question needs to be asked....
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Identifying good betting races
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/12/2004
Punt to Win index

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