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17/12/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, December 11.

Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Lord Bubbles
Result: first
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $55,000 4YO and upward. Sc0ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Go Gus
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Grant Delaney
Winner: Centre Fire
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Scott Thurlow
Trainer: Bob Milligan

Moonee Valley: Track Dead
R3 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Processor
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
Jockey: Ryan Moloney
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Plans
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Tony McEvoy
Trainer: Steven King

Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Nozi
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: By My Side
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

R2 $20,000 3YO. Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Hidden Bounty
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
Jockey: Nicole Stone
Trainer: Stuart Gower
Winner: Sparkling Now
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Darryl Hewitt

R4 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sassbee
Result: first
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Shayne Cahill
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Identifying good betting races
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/12/2004
Punt to Win index


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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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