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10/12/2004 edition

Trifecta Betting Tips

I met up recently at a Melbourne Cup function with one of our successful punting acquaintances, Michael, and had a pretty long conversation. Michael nominated Brew as being a handicapping certainty in the Melbourne Cup (it won), but then I was also given so many other hot tips for the race from so many  that evening.

Back to the point of this article. Michael very rarely takes trifectas but when he does take them he wins.  Here are his views about trifectas and how to win on them.

Essentials to know about trifectas.

1. Trifectas are poor value. You are betting in captive tote markets without competition from bookmakers.

2. The tote takes much more out of the trifecta pools than the tote win pools. .
 
3. Betting for the win with bookmakers and you can at times have markets where close to $100 is being returned for every $100 bet. If the wrong horses win for bookmakers then more than $100 is being returned for every $100 bet. You can also compare bookmaker prices with every tote. Play the trifectas and you know only around $80 is returned for every $100 bet.

Michael also pointed out why in poor value tote pools the average punter has little chance. Here again are his main points.

Save money. Don't take poor value trifectas.

1. Many punters look at the tote prices and don't even know the horses they are backing. For them it is purely a numbers game with the odds stacked against them.

2. They bet the tote favourite to win with the most popular tote horses for second and third. Maybe throw in a few tote firmers as well. Or they box the top four or five tote horses. 

3. Another common method is to take the odds on favourite for first with the field for second and third in the mistaken belief that they will get value from the good thing winning.

4. These must all lose because they are the most popular ways of taking trifectas. In pools where only $80 is returned for every $100 bet the most popular wins pay way under their true odds. 

5. How often do punters box the entire field when there are no more than six runners? As Michael said, "I saw a mug in the tote box the five horse field for $60. I asked him why he was doing it and he said he couldn't lose. The trifecta paid $11. He lost 80% of his outlay. Of course you must lose if you start boxing entire fields. The tote is not a charity." 

Well, Michael, how can punters win money with trifectas?
Here is what Michael said:
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Win money betting trifectas
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Sandown Hillside
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/12/2004
Punt to Win index


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