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10/12/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, December 4.

Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Jovial
Result: first
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $55,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gonski
Result: first
Starting price: $1.22
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Tim Martin

R3 $55,000 3YO and upward. Sc2. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Valadez
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gwenda Markwell
Winner: Brother Of Danny
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.70
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Rodney Bailey

R4 $55,000 4YO and upward. Sc0ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Oakfield King
Result: fifth
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Darren Smith
Winner: Mahtoum
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Kim Moore

R5 $55,000 4YO and upward. Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Romare
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.80
Jockey: William Pearson
Trainer: Kris Lees
Winner: Rosmarino
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gary Portelli

Sandown Hillside: Track Good
R1 $40,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Wildly
Result: second
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.35
Jockey: Rowan Waymouth
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy
Winner: Secateurs
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $20,000 3YO Fillies. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Woman Eyes
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Peter Jolly

R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Kingify
Result: second
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Loutonne
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.60
Jockey: Wayne Kerford
Trainer: Dennis McMahon

This edition of Punt to Win:
Win money betting trifectas
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Sandown Hillside
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/12/2004
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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