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17/12/2004 edition

Identifying Good Betting Races

Continued from previous page.

Why did the race caller describe the 2YO Fillies Open as a "good betting race"?

Nothing actually happened in the betting ring.
The opening prices of the 10 runners in the betting ring with their market percentages were:  
$3.00 (33.33), $4.00 (25), $4.00 (25), $6.50 (15.38), $7.50 (13.33),
$8.00 (12.5), $8.00 (12.5), $8.00 (12.5), $13.00 (7.69), $13.00 (7.69).
That totals 164.92%. 
It is also equivalent to betting eight dollars to win two on the toss of a coin.
Any wonder prices eased in the betting ring.

Only Ashley Kate stayed firm at her opening quote of $8.00.
Only two horses firmed at any stage in the betting ring:

opened at $4.00, eased to $4.80 and firmed slightly to start at $4.50.
Office Hours opened at $13.00, eased to $15.00, had a little specking and started at $13.00.    

Based on the betting, there was no evidence whatsoever of all those owners and connections who "think they have a horse that gallops particularly well" deciding to "have a go".

Here are the starting prices of the 10 runners with their market percentages:
$3.50 (28.57), $4.50 (22.22),  $4.50 (22.22), $8.00 (12.5), $8.50 (11.76),
$9.00 (11.11), $10.00 (10), $10.00 (10), $13.00 (7.69), $15.00 (6.67) 
That totals 142.74%. 
It is also equivalent to betting seven dollars to win three on the toss of a coin.

Combine both lack of disclosed form with very poor prices on offer and punters were on a hiding to nothing.

Why did the race caller say when "there's so much guessing going on and that's good" and also add that it is "pretty good thinking" to "have a go" under those circumstances? 

Well, what is a GOOD betting race?
Precisely the opposite of that 2YO Fillies race.

It is a race where the odds can favour smart punters long term.

2. There is plenty of disclosed and current form.

3. There are also usually only a few horses with realistic winning chances.

4. That means the race is not a raffle.
5. Correctly sort out the main chances, get good odds about your key selections, stake them right and long term you should do well.  

The best of Punt to Win
Article based on Punt to Win, 1st. December, 2000.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Identifying good betting races
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/12/2004
Punt to Win index

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