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10/9/2005 edition

Horse Racing Form Analysis

Track downgrades

When tracks are downgraded, and often even before the official downgrade, the odds are become stacked against punters who are serious about trying to win long term.

Of course, it makes no difference to the many punters who "do the form" from race to race. The odds are so heavily stacked against them they have little chance anyway of winning long term. You can only assume they are purely "fun punters" betting with money they are quite happy to lose.

But for punters who are not interested in throwing their money away on a regular basis changed track conditions mean:

1. Most of the form done for the meeting, which may have taken hours, can be thrown out the window.

2. Late scratchings change the way the races will be run.

3. No time to make changes to form already done.

4. If the punter is at the track then in all likelihood there is also no access to the detailed information needed and used in making selections and ratings.

5. The correct course of action is to stop betting or to very dramatically reduce the size of bets.

How often when rain starts pouring down at a race meeting do you see punters quickly looking at the nearest form guide available to find wet trackers? That is doomed to long term failure. Good bets and long term winning bets can't be found in a matter of minutes or even seconds.

It's not that easy to make money.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horses dropping back in distance
Get those betting odds
The Winners at Big Odds horse racing betting system
Beware those track downgrades
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/9/2005
Punt to Win index


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Horse

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Caffe Francais 16.30 26.40 $101
Banned 11.10 18.05 $69
Connoisseur 7.10 12.00 $49
Squad 5.70 10.65 $49


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