Punt to Win
Melbourne Cup Carnival
Horse racing betting tips
Apart from the evenness of the fields there is one major reason why many Melbourne Spring and Cup Carnival races are very tricky betting affairs.
Many horses in the race are simply not there to win! Now don't get me wrong, of course they are trying. But whether the $200,000 race is won or not is really irrelevant. The horse has been set for far richer pickings down the track and the lead up races are just that - glorified trials under race and prizemoney conditions which will help have the horse at its peak some time in the future.
So when champion 7YO mare Makybe Diva won the Memsie Stakes last Saturday at Caulfield, you can bet it was a surprise for Lee Freedman and connections. Makybe Diva had definitely not been set for that race. Connections are planning well ahead and looking at races like the Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate to have the mare at her peak. There is no way they were going to have her too forward in condition last Saturday.
That's also what makes betting in Melbourne Spring and Cup Carnival races so tricky. You often have inferior horses set for a particular race and at their peak competing against better class horses that are often not at their peak nor racing at their best distance.
The following is a scenario you can guarantee will occur in coming weeks.
You'll find a horse in the betting ring firm from something like $5.00 to $3.80 favourite. However, in the race you'll find the horse settle well back in the field, be well back and very wide around the home turn and never look like a winning chance. It will run on nicely and finish say fifth, beaten by a few lengths.
The connections will be pleased as the horse is being aimed for longer races. But that's a completely different agenda from the punters who will take the $3.80 and never get a look in.
This edition of Punt to Win:
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