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27/8/2005 edition

Betting Horses Set to Win First Up from a Spell

Follow this wagering tip and save money

No horse first up is a good thing! That's maybe taking it a bit too far, but it gets the point across. No matter how well horses have trialled, no matter how good the horse's first up record, no matter what the whispers, every time a horse is first up it is a brand new ball game. That is also why we suggest you never take short odds about any horse resuming from a spell.

Many, many punters have lost large amounts of money betting first up "certainties". Below are some examples from the past to illustrate our point.


1. First up - no "good thing"

Five year old mare Paris Heartbeat looked an absolute standout first up in a very ordinary Open Handicap at Doomben.

1. She had an excellent strike rate with eight wins from 23 starts.

2. Her first up record was fine with two wins from three starts.

3. She had performed well in Listed races in West Australia including a close third to Bumbelina.

4.
She came in well at the weights with only 55kg.

5.
She had a top jockey in Michael Cahill.

6.
She should have been far too good for the likes of Schumann and Arakoola.

So what happened?

Paris Heartbeat was backed in on track from $2.25 to $2.00. She settled around four lengths off the lead. When asked for her effort in the straight she was slow to accelerate, but ran on late to finish second, beaten by two lengths. Paris Heartbeat never looked like winning - hardly want you want from an even money chance where you must obtain a 50% winning strike rate just to break even.


2. First up - no "good thing"

Exclusive Jewel had only raced four times. She had won her first race by over four lengths. It was a restricted three year old event at Victoria Park. Then taken to Melbourne, she won two 3YO Fillies Open Handicaps, before failing on a Dead rated track and being spelled. (She was a Rory's Jester filly, and his progeny are usually hopeless on rain affected tracks.)

At Victoria Park the Tony McEvoy privately trained four year old mare Exclusive Jewel was first up from a spell of eight months in a 1000 metres Open Handicap. She was backed like an absolute certainty, being plunged from $3.00 to $1.80.

Was that stable money or wealthy "in the know" punters following a tip from the stable? Whatever it was, they were certainly licking their wounds after the race! Exclusive Jewel showed early speed to lead, but weakened a little to finish fourth, beaten by a length. It was a good first up run, but not if you're taking $1.80. Those punters who took the short odds certainly haven't followed our advice. No horse is a good thing first up.

In that 11 horse field there were plenty of smart gallopers including Vargna - a Black-type winner. There were also three other horses resuming from spells, and you can guarantee at least one of them was also set for a first up win. Flurry's Gem, which we had written up in "Horse Watch", was also first up and won the race paying $7.70 on the tote.

A careful look at the form of the field would indicate that taking $3.00, which meant giving a 33% winning chance to Exclusive Jewel in the 11 horse field was poor value. Taking $1.80 which meant giving a 55% winning chance to Exclusive Jewel in the 11 horse field was basically throwing your money away.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses set to win first up from a spell
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
The First Up Class Winners Horse Racing Betting System
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Caulfield
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 20/8/2005
Punt to Win index


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