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13/3/2010
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 27th. February, 2010. On this day the $500,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Futurity Stakes was held at Caulfield.
Caulfield: Track Good
R1 $70,000
3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Launay
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden
R2 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Returntosender
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Avionics
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths
R7 $500,000
Group 1. Weight for Age. Futurity Stakes.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $70,000
3YO and up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Hadaaf
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Equal Favourite: Martin Place
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Rodney Northam
Winner: Spinney
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
Sportsbet Australia - fantastic betting bonuses for members!
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
IASbet: Hundreds of dollars in betting value!
Sportingbet Australia - regular great betting offers for members!
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Betfair: Why not "be the bookie" & offer odds!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
BetEzy - fantastic promotions for punters!
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index
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You
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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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