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20/6/2015 edition

Everything You Need to Know About Horse Racing Betting Systems

Horse racing betting systems responsibly marketed can provide you with some good ideas to play around with, though purchase may be a rather expensive way of obtaining ideas in print that you could have possibly thought of yourself.

But plenty of horse racing betting systems are not responsibly marketed. They claim outrageous profits on turnover which the marketers surely know are not sustainable. They claim outrageous profits on turnover which would make them worth tens of thousands of dollars if even half those profits on turnover were to continue.

Does it seem right to you marketing a racing system for a couple of hundred dollars and at the same time claiming hundreds of per cent profit on turnover? Would would give away such a gold mine for a couple of hundred dollars?

Some marketing methods are primarily aimed at people who know nothing about horse racing - novice punters, the lazy or the greedy.

Many years ago when I started to develop more than a passing interest in horse racing I thought it must be possible to make money betting on the animals. I also purchased a number of slickly marketed horse racing betting systems at that time. At the time I assumed there were laws that prevented people from making inaccurate claims, so I thought the racing systems would continue to win money after I purchased them.

How silly I was.

One thing that did arouse my curiosity was how these systems' past results always started sensationally with huge winners from day one. That never happened for me.

Another thing that aroused my curiosity was how many systems ended up being based upon just around 100 final selections from several years' results at say a 25% winning strike rate.

I started to smell a rat.

I realised that just 25 winners from 100 selections could easily become 10 winners from 100 selections and a substantial loss on turnover. After all, I couldn't win with any of those systems.

Welcome to a world where rules, no matter how illogical, are specifically designed to keep past winners and eliminate past losers.

I purchased racing systems with blurbs telling you that systems do win and that it's the users' fault when they don't - such as missing that winning bet because they're having a drink, or such as stopping betting with the system when it has a few losing bets and so missing out on the system's future winners. Guess you've got to just keep betting and losing when the system doesn't work!

That cost me money and taught me a few valuable lessons:

1. Don't automatically assume anyone will give away for a few dollars a method they really believe will make substantial profits in the future.

Don't automatically assume that marketed racing systems will produce future profits that resemble past results. Many will lose, and some will lose heavily.

All racing systems appear to have one big failing - they cannot properly take account of the individuality of each race and they cannot satisfactorily take into account the other horses that the system horse is running against.

To win at horse racing you need to develop an excellent understanding of form analysis. This is a skill, just like accountants, lawyers, teachers, artists, authors and others all require different skills to succeed. ( Or have an outstanding computer program plus the discipline to correctly use it.)

5. It also hit home that it was possible, no matter how much one tries, to be unable to develop good horse racing form analysis skills. It's just like to some students, no matter how much they try, calculus and applied maths will not make sense, while they are able to coherently write about and discuss history or English literature. It's just like some people will not be able to develop the skills needed to be a lawyer or a good school teacher or a portrait artist and so on.

I realised that if I was unable to develop the skills necessary to win at horse racing then I had three main alternatives:

Stop betting

Substantially reduce the size of all my bets so that I could enjoy racing purely as an entertainment and social experience and that money lost was nothing more than entertainment expenses.

Find a reputable ratings/tipping service.

Fortunately, after many hours of hard work, I was able to successfully develop my own form analysis skills. During this process I also came to realise that for years I had been led the wrong way by many in the horse racing media. When I was a novice I just assumed that they all were experts on horse racing and form analysis. They sounded so self assured and knowledgeable.

Big mistake.

Anyway, I digress. Marketed horse racing betting systems claiming hundreds of percent profit on turnover of course appeal to our greed and dreams of making easy money without having to do any work. But from what I have seen punters end up paying money for what are often no more than just a list of past results, using rules specially made to get those results.

How is a horse racing system made?

Well I'll tell you how. For a bit of fun, I devised a system that made over 100% profit on turnover. Then with a staking plan designed to fit the results turned a few dollars into over $100,000.

First of all you look for winners at double figure odds. That is very easily done today with computer databases of past results. Make certain to include winners over $20.00.

Once you have your winners use your intelligence and your computer to find some factors common to a number of the big priced winners. Make certain to keep winners over $20.00. They will be found using our newly "discovered" special form factor.

Now you introduce a series of elimination rules to get rid of plenty of the losers but keep those big winners. You make the rules sound very sensible.

Then you introduce a staking plan to maximise profits. Check the pattern of your winners and make the staking plan fit the results. That means rapidly increasing your bet sizes because your system is going to start off winning big from day one. (By the way have you seen the dates many marketed racing systems commence from? How many start from January 1 or the beginning of a new racing year in August?)

Here's an extra way to maximise past profits. If your past results have plenty of betting days where there are only one or two selections and on those days they win, while there are some other losing days with quite a few bets on those days, one easy way to maximise profits is to call each racing day a separate "profit or investment day".

6. Make your system stake 5% or 10% of the bank on each race day no matter how many bets you have. That way, on the days where you only have one or two bets and they win, you clean up because you have big bets on them. Of course we know that sort of staking will probably not work in the future. Imagine having 10% of your bank on a number of losing days where you have that 10% on just one selection which of course loses. Then imagine also betting 10% of your bank on days where you have 10 selections and five win. Those winners will just be staked 1% each of your bank!

Now all I had to do was sell the system, which of course I didn't, because I knew it wouldn't work. Here's how it could have been sold:

7. Punters for years have wanted to see lists of past results, profits and strike rates. You meet their demands. Give your system an attractive name. Supply an exciting list of past winning results with a great strike rate on a nice glossy brochure. Add in your amazing new "special form factor" that you have discovered. Show how a small bank turns into a betting fortune. With any luck you'll watch the dollars roll in that you know you'd never get in the future yourself from using your system.

8. Also, of course, watch your system most likely collapse. But you've made your money. Now it's time to invent another horse racing betting system based on another exciting new "special form factor" and sell it to more punters. Maybe even plenty of the punters who bought your last system will purchase your new system. Punters don't easily give up on the search for that winning money making horse racing system pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Everything you need to know about horse racing betting systems
The Free Let's Win First Up Over 1400 Metres horse racing betting system

The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Stradbroke Handicap & Queensland Derby - 6/6/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: Queensland Oaks & Doomben 10,000 - 30/5/2015 & 23/5/2015
Free horse racing Top Four Ratings & betting tips membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 13/6/2015 & 6/6/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 30/5/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 23/5/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 23/5/2015
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

Brilliant Saturday - $61.90 Winner & $9,046.90 First Four!!!

Saturday, 18th. April, 2015 was another brilliant day for the Free Top Four ratings.

We rated just 10 races from Randwick, Caulfield and Doomben for some massive collects!

Top Four winners included:

Red Bomber $61.90
Rock Royalty $13.90
Slightly Sweet $12.00
Dissident $11.00

In addition, the First Four in Caulfield R6 (top five) paid as much as $9,046.60 on the NSW tote! (We provide an additional 2 horses to help with first fours and trifectas. In this race one of our horses was also scratched!)

-----Original Message-----
From: Tony
Sent: Monday, 16 March 2015 7:42 AM
Subject: Top Four Ratings

Hi Neil,

Thank you for bringing the Top Four ratings back. It's funny you know, I always go to your site to have a look at everything you have there regardless of whether the ratings were there or not, your site is the only site I really trust over all the other sites I have visited. There are no other sites like yours, it's very friendly and you just want to go there!

Tony W.

PS: Your ratings got some very good results, trifectas, quinellas running doubles, duets, first fours. The people you get to rate the races are very good, they don't always put the favourites in!

How can I get the Free Top Four Ratings?

There are two ways.

1. Register for the Forum:

Then you can access the FREE Top Four ratings
the Free Saturday Horse Racing Information & Betting Tips Forum.
Click here to register for the Forum

2. Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter for:
FREE Top Four Ratings, FREE betting tips and more.
Click here

2014 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends


Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Reparations 31.00 44.60 $408
General Groove 21.00 24.90 $117
Antelucan 11.00 14.80 $114
Protectionist 8.00 8.60 $18
Atacama 5.50 6.10 $18
Hijack Hussy 10.50 11.00 $15
Mahara 5.60 6.00 $12
Risen From Doubt 7.80 8.10 $9
Precious Gem 5.70 6.00 $9
Grand Marshal 3.70 4.00 $9


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