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20/6/2015 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows recent results for horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week from the main Saturday horse race meetings held in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 13/6/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Eisenhower
60kg.
2
1500
$5.50
2/8
Ecuador
60.5kg.
2
2000
$3.90 fav.
4/11
Flemington - 13/6/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Siegestor
60kg.
8
1400
$9.50
9/14
Ipswich - 13/6/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Wicked Intent
60kg.
7
1100
$1.90 fav.
1/11
Randwick - 6/6/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Avoid Lightning
60kg.
1
1100
$3.10 fav.
2/14
Spencer Street
61kg.
13
1200
$6.50
5/14
Miss Promiscuity
60kg.
1
1200
$3.50 fav.
8/12
Royal Island
60kg.
3
1200
$6.00
5/11
Moonee Valley - 6/6/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Magic Boy
60kg.
6
1600
$8.00
6/8
Moonee Valley - 30/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Smashing Doubt
60kg.
4
1500
$9.50
1/12
Marseille Roulette
60kg.
12
1200
$8.00
9/14
Flemington - 23/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Magic Boy
60kg.
7
1600
$9.00
3/12
Reparations
60kg.
10
1200
$7.50
3/10
Sonntag
60kg.
4
3200
$6.00 fav.
2/14
Tried And Tired
60kg.
15
1400
$6.00 equ. fav.
4/16
Caulfield - 16/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Fontein Ruby
60kg.
15
2000
$4.20
9/16
Rosehill - 9/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Role Model
60kg.
15
1500
$7.50
3/18
Hollywood Bound
60kg.
4
1500
$7.50
6/18
Flemington - 9/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Setinum
60kg.
4
1400
$5.50
7/13
Doomben - 9/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Laser Hawk
60kg.
6
1600
$6.00
10/12
Caulfield - 2/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Show A Star
60kg.
12
2000
$3.80
3/12
Toowoomba - 2/5/2015
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Pornichet
60.5kg.
10
2150
$2.40 fav.
1/13
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Everything you need to know about horse racing betting systems
The Free Let's Win First Up Over 1400 Metres horse racing betting system

The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Stradbroke Handicap & Queensland Derby - 6/6/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: Queensland Oaks & Doomben 10,000 - 30/5/2015 & 23/5/2015
Free horse racing Top Four Ratings & betting tips membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 13/6/2015 & 6/6/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 30/5/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 23/5/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 23/5/2015

Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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