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20/6/2015 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Randwick and Doomben for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 23rd. May, 2015.

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R2 $85,000 3YO. Rating 79. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tree Of Jesse
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Bart & James Cummings

R4 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Paederos
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Winona Costin
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Beyond Thankful
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Charles In Charge
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Winona Costin
Trainer: Lee & Anthony Freedman
Winner: God's In Him
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes


Doomben: Track Soft R1 - R3, Good R4 - R9.

R1 $125,000 Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2020 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Hvasstan
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.90
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Tony Gollan
Winner: Faust
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Kurt Goldman

This edition of Punt to Win:
Everything you need to know about horse racing betting systems
The Free Let's Win First Up Over 1400 Metres horse racing betting system

The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Stradbroke Handicap & Queensland Derby - 6/6/2015
Group 1 horse racing results: Queensland Oaks & Doomben 10,000 - 30/5/2015 & 23/5/2015
Free horse racing Top Four Ratings & betting tips membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 13/6/2015 & 6/6/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 30/5/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 23/5/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 23/5/2015

Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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