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28/8/2010
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
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There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 21st. August, 2010.
On this day the $175,000 Group 2 Weight for Age Warwick Stakes was run over 1400 metres at Warwick Farm.
Doomben: Track Slow.
R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Fillydelphia
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Morphettville: Track Heavy.
R1 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Legalistic
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Obsidian Dragon
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: David Balfour
R2 $40,000 3YO & UP. Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Man Of Class
Result: Lost Rider.
Starting price: $1.55
Jockey: Arron Lynch
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Winner: Destiny Calls
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Stephen Gray
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson
R4 $40,000 3YO & UP. Steeplechase. Handicap.
Distance: 3500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Last Shogun
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Emily Taylor
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
This edition of Punt to Win:
Following Horse Racing Media Tipsters' Betting Advice & Betting Tips
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The Professional Punter's horse racing news
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Betfair: Where you can "be the bookie" & offer the odds!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/8/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 7/8/2010
Punt to Win index
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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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