Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

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We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Flemington - 6/3/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Avenue	59kg.	3	1100	$6.00	4/9
Morphettville - 6/3/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Hawks Bay	59.5kg.	1	2000	$2.30	1/6
Caulfield - 27/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Time Matters	59kg.	8	1200	$5.50	2/8
Eagle Farm - 27/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
The Jackal	61kg.	6	1200	$4.60	3/9
Rosehill - 20/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Neeson	59kg.	8	1100	$4.00	4/9
Caulfield - 20/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Lady Lynette	59kg.	11	1200	$6.50	3/11
Morphettville - 20/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Spectacular Saint	59kg.	7	1000	$5.00	2/8
Randwick - 13/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Mr Clangtastic	59kg.	1	1600	$11.00	3/9
Moonee Valley - 13/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Marchelle Belle	59kg.	5	1200	$4.60fav.	2/9
Eagle Farm - 13/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
The Jackal	59.5kg.	9	1200	$4.20	1/9
Caulfield - 6/2/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
My Emotion	59kg.	7	1200	$5.50	4/9

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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