Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

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We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 59kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Canterbury - 28/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Fontelina	59kg.	3	1200	$9.00	1/6
Girls Go Racing	59kg.	2	1100	$5.50	3/7
News Alert	59kg.	2	1250	$7.00	7/7
My Vegas	59kg.	3	1250	$10.00	6/10
Sandown Lakside - 28/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Song Of The Bell	59kg.	7	1300	$7.00	6/11
Instalment	59.5kg.	1	1400	$3.80fav.	10/14
Morphettville - 28/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Balzoni	61kg.	1	1050	$9.50	9/9
Grand Ginger	59kg.	6	1200	$7.00	2/12
Rosehill - 21/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rosie's Reward	60kg.	7	1200	$3.90fav.	4/9
Recorrido	59kg.	6	1200	$10.00	8/9
Irish Jig	59kg.	6	1500	$4.80	6/7
Hoylonny	59kg.	8	1350	$4.40	7/10
Rolling Pin	60kg.	12	1800	$4.60	2/12
Eagle Farm - 21/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Kilwinning Option	59kg.	10	1200	$5.00	2/12
Morphettville - 21/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Snip 'N' Run	59kg.	1	1400	$5.00	10/11
Rosehill - 14/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Permit	59kg.	3	2400	$4.20	1/8
New Day Rising	59kg.	1	1500	$3.20e.fav.	3/6
Parthian	59kg.	6	1500	$4.00	2/6
Flemington - 14/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sound System	60kg.	3	1000	$8.00	5/7
Shadowfax	59kg.	6	1400	$10.00	9/10
Gold Coast- 14/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Catapulted	60kg.	2	1400	$3.40fav.	12/13
Kontiki Park	59kg.	8	1800	$3.90	1/14
Morphettville - 14/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Fitoussi	59kg.	5	2600	$2.50fav.	4/7
Big Slick	59kg.	5	1600	$4.40	6/9
Warwick Farm - 7/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Tiger Tees	59kg.	4	1300	$1.65fav.	2/7
Caulfield - 7/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
First Command	59kg.	1	1200	$3.60fav.	3/7
Wealthy Lad	59kg.	1	1400	$10.00	1/13
Gold Coast - 7/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Mr Favulous	59kg.	4	1200	$7.00	7/13
Seek And Find	59kg.	10	900	$5.50	2/12
Trusted Partner	59kg.	4	900	$5.00e.fav.	9/12
Morphettville - 7/1/2012
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Petman	59kg.	4	1200	$2.25fav.	1/7
Blue Maggich	60kg.	1	1600	$7.00	9/9
Moonee Valley - 31/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Westsouthwest	59kg.	3	2040	$3.00fav.	2/7
Soaked	59kg.	2	2040	$5.00	5/7
Tykook	59kg.	5	1200	$7.50	5/10
Costa In The Glen	59kg.	3	1200	$7.00	6/11
Obsidian Dragon	59.5kg.	5	1000	$5.00	1/11
Canterbury - 24/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
We Betcha	60.5kg.	2	1200	$10.00	6/6
Sandown Hillside - 24/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Oforawesome	59kg.	2	1300	$9.00	9/14
Morphettville - 24/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Loukoumi	59kg.	6	2250	$3.00fav.	6/8
Warwick Farm - 17/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Scouting Wide	61.5kg.	2	2200	$8.00	2/9
Catapulted	59kg.	8	1200	$3.50	5/8
Flemington - 17/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Light Vision	59kg.	8	2540	$9.00	7/8
Morphettville - 17/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Justify That	60kg.	2	1250	$9.00	6/12
Morphettville - 10/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Instructor	59kg.	7	2019	$3.70	5/7
Caulfield - 3/12/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Mabsam	59kg.	6	1400	$6.50	6/11
Catapulted	60kg.	4	1100	$5.00e.fav.	2/15

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