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3/9/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, August 27.

Caulfield: Track Slow

R5 $200,000 Memsie Stakes: Group 2. Weight for Age.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Regal Roller
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Mark Flaherty
Trainer: Clinton McDonald
Winner: Makybe Diva
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.90
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Doomben: Track Good

R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2020 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Devastating
Result: first

Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: John Collins


Here are the results from Saturday, August 20.

Randwick: Track Good

R4 $125,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Snitzel
Result: first

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Equal Favourite: Stratum
Result: second

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Paul Perry


Caulfield: Track Heavy

R2 $50,000 4YO and upward. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: General Conclusion
Result: first

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Tony Vasil

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup Carnival horse racing betting tips
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/8/2005
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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