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12/7/2002 edition

Horse Racing
Ex-Jockey Betting Tips

Punters had taken an absolute hammering at the Sunshine Coast due to accepting short odds in very large fields with betting markets around 150%. Before the last, ex-jockey, now Sky Racing tipster, Larry Olsen, selected a very short priced $2.40 tote favourite as his number one selection. He said:

"...Vladivostok on course, he is the one that they have backed and obviously everybody's here to try and get out on him. He's shortened quite noticeably... I'm pretty well sticking to what I had this morning, one and four. I think it's a race between the two. I think Vain Halo will go forward to be somewhere in the firing line and Vladivostok will have to run him down..."

Let us examine Larry Olsens' comments:

"Vladivostok on course, he is the one that they have backed and obviously everybody's here to try and get out on him. He's shortened quite noticeably..." (Larry Olsen.)

The races do not finish with the last race of the day. For sensible, disciplined punters there is no such thing as a "get out race".

The aim in backing a horse is to get best odds. Vladivostok was a backmarker in a field of 14, had barrier nine and was handicapped with a hefty 58kg. He had four wins from 18 starts, had not carried big weights to victory and was certainly not used to carrying 58kg.

So why be a sheep and back a horse under those conditions because the unnamed "they" have backed it from short odds of $3.20, which was not value anyway, into even shorter odds of $2.25 starting price? That is a recipe for losing, not winning. If "they" have plenty of money to throw about and want to lose, then let them. Don't join them.

"I think it's a race between the two. I think Vain Halo will go forward to be somewhere in the firing line and Vladivostok will have to run him down..." (Larry Olsen.)

The only "race between the two" is a two horse race. There were 14 horses in the race, not two. It is because punters often reason in that way that they end up dismissing the winning chances of all the other runners. As a result odds way below a horse's true winning chances are accepted.

Vain Halo, who started at $4.60, finished sixth, beaten a touch over two lengths. Vladivostok never got into the race and finished down the track - thirteenth.

PS: What a pity excellent racecaller Alan Thomas wasn't doing the calling. He might have had something to say about Larry Olsen's Vladivostok tip. To his credit Alan Thomas realises that taking short odds on backmarkers like "the Vladivostoks" are very risky bets.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Ex-jockey betting tips
"Gee, that's a price" - racecaller betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill and Flemington plunge horses
Money talks - Sunshine Coast plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/7/2002
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
A Deena
5.20 8.50 79% $330
Imposing Don
4.10 7.00 94% $290
Palais
5.70 8.50 60% $280
Sir Redford
4.50 6.50 57% $200
Sir Dan
2.40 3.50 79% $110
Honey Ryder
4.00 3.00 50% $100


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