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5/7/2002 edition

Form Analysis
Betting Odds

Five minutes before the fifth at Rosehill, a Country Cash 3YO Class 6 event over 1400 metres, Sky Racing's Wayne Harris gave us his "Late Mail" tip, short priced $2.60 tote favourite Marrakesh Express. The gelding also had barrier 12 of 12 and was handicapped with top weight of 60.5kg.

Racecaller Terry Bailey said just before the race:

"The favourite has blown like a gail and he's very short the tote $2.60 but there's plenty of value for other runners..." Keep this in mind when you read what Wayne Harris said in his "Late Mail" from the Rosehill track.

This is what Wayne Harris said:

"He's going to be very hard to beat, the top weight here, Marrakesh Express. He's the only one that they've backed on course. He'll need a bit of luck though. He has got the big weight here, but he's used to carying big weights. Most of his career he has carried them.

He's second up from a spell. He ran a very nice second at Randwick behind the very smart Stormcat Academy a couple of weeks back...We know Stormcat Academy has gone on and won the Pacesetter after that. He (Marrakesh Express) did it tough in that run too with the big weight so he's ridden by an apprentice rider." (Wayne Harris must be referring to apprentice Nathan Cumberland who rode him then.) Wayne Harris continued:

"Today they've opted to go with the senior rider Corey Brown here. Bit of an awkward draw...He did look very good, very fit in the parade. Just hope he has a bit of luck here so I've got to stick with him."

By understanding the way media tipster Wayne Harris supported his "Late Mail" selection, we understand whether to pay attention to tips like that for our betting or to ignore them.

Before we do that Marrakesh Express opened at $2.35 and eased in the betting to start at $3.50. Now a lot must have happened in the few minutes after Wayne Harris went off the air, because according to his "Late Mail" Marrakesh Express was "the only one that they've backed on course."
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form analysis and betting odds tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill, Flemington, Ipswich plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/6/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
A Deena
5.20 8.50 79% $330
Imposing Don
4.10 7.00 94% $290
5.70 8.50 60% $280
Sir Redford
4.50 6.50 57% $200
Sir Dan
2.40 3.50 79% $110
Honey Ryder
4.00 3.00 50% $100

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