5/7/2002 edition

Form Analysis
and
Betting Odds

From previous page

1. "He's the only one that they've backed on course." (Wayne Harris)

Racecaller Terry Bailey contradicted that.

2. "He has got the big weight here, but he's used to carying big weights. Most of his career he has carried them." (Wayne Harris)

Marrakesh Express had raced 11 times. The biggest weight he had carried was 58kg. There is a massive difference between carrying 58kg. and 60.5kg.

3. "He ran a very nice second at Randwick behind the very smart Stormcat Academy a couple of weeks back...We know Stormcat Academy has gone on and won the Pacesetter after that." (Wayne Harris)

A horse's performance should be judged on the merits of its actual run. What Stormcat Academy came out and did afterwards has no bearing one way or the other on Marrakesh Express's last run.

As just about everyone would use the Stormcat Academy run in the Pacesetter to judge Marrakesh Express you can be sure that it will not work long term. If you are going to win at racing long term you have to be different from everyone else.

4. "Bit of an awkward draw...Just hope he has a bit of luck here so I've got to stick with him." (Wayne Harris)

Is that smart betting? Taking $2.60 about a horse from barrier 12 of 12 with 60.5kg. and hoping for "a bit of luck". Also, since when does anyone have to "stick" with a horse?

5. "The favourite has blown like a gail and he's very short the tote $2.60 but there's plenty of value for other runners..." (Racecaller Terry Bailey.)

Why is there so much "value" on offer in just about every race? Will punters who take the value every race win? Of course not. Which means the "value" does not exist. There isn't a nirvana of betting "value" in markets of 120%. When the tote or bookies have betting markets below 100% every race that's when we can talk freely and correctly every race about "value."

6. Stewards report

Marrakesh Express finished last of 11. Here are some extracts from the stewards' report:

"When questioned regarding the disappointing performance of Marrakesh Express, C. Brown stated that the gelding began only fairly and with its big weight of 60kg. had difficulty mustering early speed and as a result was unable to cross inside runners. He added that he was then unable to obtain cover. Marrakesh Express was obliged to race three wide without cover, however, it was necessary to commence riding the gelding along from the 600m. as it was commencing to give ground. He added that under pressure in the straight Marrakesh Express did not respond to his riding and was most disappointing."

Did Marrakesh Express simply have bad luck for his backers? No. It was just a bad bet at the odds which were as short as $2.60 on the tote. Everything had to go right with 60kg. and the widest barrier. Even then there was every possibility the horse would have difficulty accelerating when required to in the home straight.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form analysis and betting odds tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill, Flemington, Ipswich plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/6/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.