13/12/2002 edition

Winning by Looking at the Betting

Here is what Brisbane racecaller Alan Thomas said just before the second race at Doomben last Saturday:

"They're coming into the gates now. Just looking at the betting it's hard to gauge this race. We gauged the first by the betting. Victory Ranger was the best backed runner in the race. This makes it a little more difficult.

No money African Grey. No money Ergonomic. Nibbler's easier. Prince Cartier's eased. Proud Native's out from his opening quote. So the market in this race really tells you that the punters are very wary. Nothing has come in at all. Can't find a shortener. Now that is rare. Not one horse has shortened in the market from the time the bookmakers put their prices up here at the track.

So in other words punters don't have a clue which I think is probably the fair assessment. They knew in the first. They backed heavily Victory Ranger the winner."

Is it that simple and easy, requiring no special skills or no special effort, to just look at the betting to "gauge this race"?

Victory Ranger was specked, not heavily backed, from $13.00. Victory Ranger started at $9.00 in the first race of the day. At those odds it does not mean "They (punters) knew in the first. They backed heavily Victory Ranger the winner." If punters "knew" the winner of a race it does not start at $9.00. More likely around $2.00 or even shorter.

In our opinion anyone who tries to gauge a race by a horse coming in a few points in the betting will not succeed. To commence with you need to get the best odds. You can only do that if you know what horses you want to back before the betting starts. That means you need to understand form assessment. That means your possible bets need to be known by you before the betting starts.

Not just looking at prices firm. That requires no skill. No work. Because it is so obvious and available to every punter it will not work long term. It's taking the poor odds after the good odds have gone. That's how to lose money over the long term.

Betting odds are also a commodity. They firm or ease based upon demand. There was a very good reason for all the prices easing in the second race discussed by Alan Thomas. Lack of demand from bettors because of the very tight bookmaker odds offered.

The second was a 12 horse race with six first starters. The bookies were super cautious about the odds they offered. The opening market percentage was 162.94%. That is equivalent to being offered odds of $1.23 for heads or tails on the toss of a coin. Can you get betting value from that?

"Board odds. $1.23 toss of the coin. Place your bet."
"Gee. $1.23 tails looks good value. I'll plunge it into $1.10."

After every horse eased, at starting price odds the market percentage was still over 134%. That is equivalent to being offered odds of $1.49 for heads or tails on the toss of a coin. Very poor betting value.

Maybe, Alan Thomas, punters couldn't see any value in the bookmaker odds on offer, which is why the odds kept easing.

Alan Thomas, you must understand betting market percentages and how they relate to fair odds for punters.

How about in future making more informative comments about the betting and referring to the bookmaker market betting percentages? All you had to do was say that the bookmaker betting market opened at over 160%, or opened very tight, and because of that all horses eased in the betting.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning bets - use horse profiles
Winning money on horse racing by looking at the betting
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Victoria Park betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/12/2002
Punt to Win index

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